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We re entering Aug / Sept / Oktober historically the months with potential downside/ crash risk.
There is enough going on what could cause it .
Also the Yieldcurve has neen inverted for quit a while now , topping pattern is visible for many indices.
Gold / Silver mining stocks usually follow the overal market ( unfortunately).
I reckon the Fed will cut eventually , and gold / silver will go ballistic
 
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Massive pumps on some altcoins. ETH almost at All Time High. But that should not be the end. If we break ATH the way is free to new high's.
My portfolio is going ballistic :D

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Yep looks like it .... on our way to 3750-3800 $$ ,... 3438 $$ and counting :cool:.
Next target 3800 $$ USD ,
With a sovereign debt crises all bets are of ( likely candidates ) ,.... UK , France , USA.

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Bitcoin has always been known for its cycles. The classic pattern accumulation, breakout, distribution, correction has repeated several times over the last decade. But the question today is whether we’re still living in that cyclical world, or if the game has changed now that institutions dominate flows. With ETFs, custodians and funds moving billions at once, the market doesn’t always behave like the retail-driven cycles of the past. It feels more like liquidity management on Wall Street than the old “four-year rhythm” that many still expect.

This month has been a reality check. September price action for BTC looks bearish. Each rally attempt has been smothered by resistance and we’re printing lower highs while support levels weaken. The biggest risk for Bitcoin isn’t technicals, it’s macro. A strong US economy, hotter inflation signals and the chance of rising interest rates are poison for risk assets. Instead of the Fed cutting aggressively, markets are being forced to price in the possibility of more tightening. That pressure lands directly on Bitcoin, which has grown into a macro-sensitive asset whether we like it or not.

Meanwhile, gold is telling a very different story. It keeps printing fresh all-time highs while BTC struggles to find direction. That divergence is important: investors are clearly looking for safe havens, and for the moment, gold is taking the spotlight. It doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” is dead, but it does highlight that BTC is not yet the first choice when fear of inflation or rates picks up. Institutions that once promised to treat BTC as a hedge are behaving like any other macro trader, they sell when liquidity tightens.
Altcoins have taken the hardest hit this month. September has been brutal, with double-digit losses across the board. Historically though, this isn’t unusual. In almost every cycle, alts bleed heavily when Bitcoin shows weakness. Retail tends to flee risk, institutions don’t bother catching falling knives, and suddenly every token looks like dead weight. The irony is that this phase often lays the groundwork for the next rotation: once Bitcoin finds a bottom or consolidates, altcoins are usually the first to snap back with outsized gains. The cycle of pain and revival repeats, even if the drivers behind it are shifting.

So are we still in a Bitcoin cycle, or is this now just a macro-driven market run by funds and central banks? The truth is probably both. Human psychology doesn’t vanish, and neither do halving effects, but institutional flows blur the old patterns and sometimes stretch them beyond recognition. September has reminded us that Bitcoin is not immune to macro shocks and that altcoins will always be the higher-beta victims when the tide goes out. The key difference today is that while retail waits for “altseason,” the real trigger may come from a pivot in bond markets, not from a halving chart on Twitter.

On a personal note, I took profits on September 12 and reduced most of my exposure. Since then I’ve been selectively buying dips on altcoins, positioning for the possibility of one last push or even a true altseason if it still comes. At the same time I’m keeping a close eye on the charts and the macro backdrop. If the market shows real weakness or breaks down further, I won’t hesitate to step aside again and sit in cash until the storm passes.
 
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This is a very thoughtful and nuanced and, I think, accurate analysis.
 
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October has started strong and the whole “Uptober” vibe is back, which is lifting the mood across the market. Alts are bouncing after a rough September, but the question is whether this move is truly convincing or just a relief rally. Right now it looks better than last month, but I wouldn’t call it a clear trend shift yet. Volume is still patchy and most of the strength is piggybacking on Bitcoin holding steady. The real confirmation for me would be a stronger ETH/BTC ratio and a visible drop in BTC dominance, and we’re not there yet.

I did buy a few dips along the way and I’m currently about two-thirds allocated. If the market keeps building momentum from here I’m in a good position for a final leg up or even a proper alt rotation. But I’m also realistic: if macro pressure kicks in again or Bitcoin loses key levels, alts will get hit hard first. For now I’m riding the optimism, but with one hand on the exit if things turn.
 
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Crazy weekend, right? Bitcoin just ripped to a new all-time high around 125k, completely catching the market off guard. The big question now is whether this was just another weekend pump that’s about to unwind, or if Bitcoin is actually following gold’s footsteps and setting up for the next leg toward 150k.

There are signs pointing both ways. On one hand, weekend moves are often exaggerated because of thinner liquidity and higher leverage. When the big money steps back in on Monday, it’s not uncommon to see those gains fade quickly. BTC also looked a bit overheated going into the move, so a short-term correction wouldn’t be surprising at all.

But the other side of the story is that the macro backdrop is turning more and more in Bitcoin’s favor. Gold keeps printing new all-time highs as investors look for safety from inflation, currency debasement, and shaky fiscal policies. That same “scarcity trade” is bleeding into Bitcoin and the narrative of BTC as digital gold suddenly feels more real than ever. If gold can melt up in this environment, why not Bitcoin too?

If BTC can hold above this new high, absorb a pullback, and build a base in this range, the setup for a run toward 150k becomes much stronger. If not, we’ll probably see a sharp flush and a test of previous support before the next leg up.

Personally, I’m not chasing green candles here, but I’m watching closely. If this breakout proves real, I’ll ride it. If it fades, I’ll be ready to step aside and wait for cleaner entries. Either way, this market just reminded everyone that Bitcoin is very much alive and it’s starting to act like gold with a turbo button.

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I think the market realizes there is no going back to tight money / fighting inflation .
Jobs numbers worsen Fed will lower interest rates despite inflation risks .
Print bby bby print.
We might not even get a downturn in stocks / real estate as they are a hedge against inflation as well
 
If bitcoin still stays strong during the coming sovereign debt market crisis / bondmarket collapse id say they have a point.
But im afaid that when the FED loses control over the bondmarket / bond yields and they go to 15 or 20 % then thats it for the stockmarket real estate and BTC
 
And Galaxy Digital, which I have been talking about here since 2020, goes to a new all-time high at US$40 with the release of the GalaxyOne trading platform.
 

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