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[marslo]

If the EU is allowed to sell frozen Russia's money and gold to support Ukraine, the situation will escalate economically and in other areas. Then the time has come to sell.

EU plant Zugriff auf russische Guthaben für Ukraine-Hilfe

Die EU will russische Notenbankguthaben für Kredite an die Ukraine nutzen. Aber weder die politischen noch die juristischen Bedenken lassen sich schnell aus der Welt schaffen.

www.faz.net

I am not sure if it will reduce the demand for gold if finally EU will come to the decision ( decision making process is one ot he main problems within EU) but there are other elements to consider ( from Bloomberg UK ):

​

But what should we be watching for? It’s not obvious that geopolitical and financial uncertainty is going to go away — or crucially, show signs of hitting rock bottom — in the near future. Moreover, when gold topped in 1980 and in 2011, other assets were cheap. The early 1980s saw the beginning of a massive equity (and bond) bull market, and — well, same for the early 2010s. The competition is not quite so clear right now. Louis-Vincent Gave at Gavekal suggests that a positive meeting between the US and China next month might be a trigger for a correction as it would soothe some of the geopolitical fear and take pressure off both parties to pursue more accommodative monetary policy. This does make sense as a potential catalyst for a correction, though as I always point out, no one has a crystal ball. We’ll keep an eye out. But for now, as Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White points out, the real end of the line will come when a big gold seller materialises — and as things stand, it’s not obvious who that would be.

 

[DasguteOhr]

I am not sure if it will reduce the demand for gold if finally EU will come to the decision ( decision making process is one ot he main problems within EU) but there are other elements to consider ( from Bloomberg UK ):

I don't know what will happen to the price when tons of gold come onto the market. No decision is expected before next year.
I'm not sure if this is a good chess move or if it will ruin our lives. In any case, there will be a Russian response no one lets so much money be taken away.

 

[DasguteOhr]

When you want to invest your money safely, Saudi Aramco shares (net profit 2024 $191 billion). The world's most profitable company for ten years in a row.

 

[andromedaaudio]

Nearly 4400 now.
Is it already a bubble???
I am thinking of closing 10 % of my position.
Pls share your thoughts.

Hi ,

Where are you gonna put your money then ?
Everything is in a bubble stocks /real estate .

If you take some profit to buy something nice why not ?

Its a highly volatile market especially the mining stocks, i dont do market timing , im in it for the long haul

I think the gold / silver run has only just started , silver broke 50 which i suppose will act as support now , next target 94 USD
Governments have to much debt , they are lowering interest rates to reduce interest payments .
The only way out is print more money / meaning higher gold price .

How high gold will go is determined by how much governments are willing to print ( how much inflation citizens will accept ) so its basically anyones guess.
I have no clue when it will stop but according to Rick Rule / P schiff were just starting .

If the current situation will result in another fiat money failure , it could mean 20.000 - 50000 USD / ounce to have sufficient gold backing if the world would want to go to a new Gold standard for currencies.

The only thing im worried about is , will the transition go with a bang or a whisper ?

 

[Tangram]

When you want to invest your money safely, Saudi Aramco shares (net profit 2024 $191 billion). The world's most profitable company for ten years in a row.

I prefer tobacco stocks. Less sinful.

 

[andromedaaudio]

Gold down 1,34 % my mining stocks got hit 7 % down .

 

[marslo]

3 days ago I asked my manager to secure the drop below 4 k, I felt it’s going up to fast.
But it can be a temporery correction, who knows. We are again in transition time but the picture of where we go is very unclear.

 

[andromedaaudio]

but the picture of where we go is very unclear.

Everybody loves a bit of gambling .
I m gambling on some event this year/ next year which will induce another round of quantative easing / massive lowering of FED interest rates to " stimulate " the economy

 

[andromedaaudio]

3 days ago I asked my manager to secure the drop below 4 k, I felt it’s going up to fast.
But it can be a temporery correction, who knows. We are again in transition time but the picture of where we go is very unclear.

I would reinvest it in the pullback .
My favs EXK AG KGC PAAS EGO

 

[marslo]

Everybody loves a bit of gambling .
I m gambling on some event this year/ next year which will induce another round of quantative easing / massive lowering of FED interest rates to " stimulate " the economy

May be true if custom duties will slow down the economy like they should according to classical theory of economy. But the new theory of "reciprocity" is being developped
@DasguteOhr and @andromedaaudio - thank you for your tips, wil discuss your proposals with portfolio manager.

 

[Tangram]

Nearly 4400 now.
Is it already a bubble???
I am thinking of closing 10 % of my position.
Pls share your thoughts.

I used to make a living as a gold equities analyst. One way of assessing whether gold is in a bubble is to gauge the investment level in gold from people who don’t normally invest in gold. So I’ll ask the obvious question: are you a long-time gold investor or are you new to gold investment? That may give you your answer.

 

[marslo]

I used to make a living as a gold equities analyst. One way of assessing whether gold is in a bubble is to gauge the investment level in gold from people who don’t normally invest in gold. So I’ll ask the obvious question: are you a long-time gold investor or are you new to gold investment? That may give you your answer.

I already mentioned here some time ago that I purchased at 1250 as a long term investment and a part of the portfolio.

 

[Tangram]

I already mentioned here some time ago that I purchased at 1250 as a long time investment and a part of the portfolio.

Congratulations. Apologies, I didn’t read the thread. Excellent investment. Why not sell enough to recoup your original investment and let the rest ride?

 

[marslo]

Congratulations. Apologies, I didn’t read the thread. Excellent investment. Why not sell enough to recoup your original investment and let the rest ride?

Thank you. Yes, interesting idea to consider. For time being I am thinking of closing 10 % but 1/3 also worth the reflection.

 

[andromedaaudio]

Im also in it since 1250 USD 2018 .KGC 3.70 USD
The first 4 years of owning mining shares was drama compared to the S en P.
If mining shares take a 30 % hit i ll just swallow it and buy more.
Buffet has got short term treasuries ready to deploy , all though he is not a gold guy he thinks markets are in bubble territory

 

[andromedaaudio]

3 days ago I asked my manager to secure the drop below 4 k, I felt it’s going up to fast.
But it can be a temporery correction, who knows. We are again in transition time but the picture of where we go is very unclear.

Seems like your gut feeling was right , gold / miners took quit a beating .
But somewhere down the line price will find a bottom , and go much higher imo .
I gave up on timing the market long time ago , i made to many expensive mistakes with put options

 

[marslo]

Seems like your gut feeling was right , gold / miners took quit a beating .
But somewhere down the line price will find a bottom , and go much higher imo .
I gave up on timing the market long time ago , i made to many expensive mistakes with put optionser

Looks very volatile , but I do not feel the bull market is over. Just wait and see

From Points of Return by Bloomberg :

​

Bianco comments: “If anyone asks the question, ‘Who is buying gold?,’ show them the updated chart and say, ‘China.’” It’s this extra buying that got the gold price moving, and prompted new interest in the decades-long phenomenon of debasement. The latest selloff might be the top of the biggest gold bull market since 2011 — but for now it’s best viewed as a violent correction to over-excitement in a plausible narrative.

 

[andromedaaudio]

Read the book " the worst bank scenario " from dutch writer Hester Bais .

Its all about having good collateral in the end .
Thats why the central Banks are buying gold

Another good book is from Willem middelkoop .
QUOTE " when money dies "

The Big Reset.

 

[andromedaaudio]

Today Fed meeting .
Lowering of rates could cause gold to move up

 

[Billgates307]

The “stress peak” in the money markets seems to be over

After weeks of concern about pressure in some key pipelines of the financial system, calm appears to be returning. The heat is slowly coming off the boiler.
The main money-market rates are now moving back within the Federal Reserve’s target range. Banks have more reserves. The Fed’s balance sheet reduction (QT) is coming to an end.
As a result, markets seem to have regained their composure — and the Fed can probably be quite satisfied with how the system absorbed the recent stress.

What exactly happened?​

At the end of October, tensions in the money markets spiked. That was the result of a few overlapping factors:

1. Month-end rebalancing: banks typically shift cash temporarily to make their balance sheets look cleaner.
2. Canadian fiscal year-end: financial institutions in Canada were closing their books, which added more pressure.
3. Temporary U.S. government shutdown: this reduced the amount of capital circulating in the system.

Because of this, the rate on very short-term loans (overnight repos) temporarily jumped. That’s the rate banks pay each other to borrow or lend money for one day.

How did the Federal Reserve respond?​

The Fed didn’t panic — it simply allowed its built-in safety nets to do their job. There are two key facilities that banks and money-market funds can use to manage short-term liquidity:

1. Standing Repo Facility (SRF): banks can temporarily borrow cash from the Fed.
2. Reverse Repo Program (RRP): money-market funds can temporarily park excess cash at the Fed.

By the end of October:

• roughly $50 billion was borrowed through the SRF (banks receiving cash)
• and about $50 billion was parked in the RRP (funds depositing cash at the Fed)

In other words, just as much money entered the system as left it — exactly how the Fed wants it to work. Rates moved up a bit, but markets kept functioning smoothly.

What’s happening now?​

According to most analysts, the situation should continue to stabilize in November, mainly because more liquidity is flowing back into the banking system:

1. The U.S. Treasury will start spending down its cash balance at the Fed (the Treasury General Account, or TGA). Less money in the TGA = more reserves for banks.
2. Foreign central banks are pulling some funds from their Fed accounts, releasing even more liquidity.
3. The Fed is set to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) by December, stopping the ongoing balance-sheet runoff.

All of this means: more money in circulation and less tension in the short-term funding markets.
Toward the end of the year, roughly $150 billion more is expected to be released from the government’s account. Capital that will eventually flow into the market and push short-term rates lower.


Bottom line:
The stress peak seems to be behind us, and that could give Bitcoin and other risk assets some breathing room again.