Will the US default on Octover 17?

[ack]

Let's see how well we all understand these politicians and the entire situation

 

[RogerD]

Not an issue. Japan will have more effect on the world economy.

 

[andromedaaudio]

No i dont think so , but both parties gonna play it hard and there will be a last minute ceiling raise

 

[Phelonious Ponk]

I don't think so. Bohner is afraid of the 80 mad, petulant children in his house, but he's not one of them. If the Dems have the testicular fortitude to hold their ground, Bohner will put a clean CR to a vote at the last minute, and it will pass.

The next tantrum awaits.

Tim

 

[ack]

I voted No as well, but have to admit I am taking advantage of the situation by moving out of the market last week in order to get back in at a lower price; I considered the whole thing very predictable.

 

[andromedaaudio]

I m aiming to close my position at 1100, but if the US will default i think were gonna hit the 2009 lows

 

[dan31]

Given the current atmosphere on the hill and at the white house, I would think a >50% chance of a default.

 

[rockitman]

Nope, will be resolved by next week or sooner.

 

[JackD201]

Nope. Somebody or everybody is gonna give.

 

[rockitman]

Nope. Somebody or everybody is gonna give.

If they don't resolve it, all involved should be criminally prosecuted...both parties.

 

[NorthStar]

I voted NO, but that's why I'm afraid!

 

[rrr]

If they don't resolve it, all involved should be criminally prosecuted...both parties.

Or worse!

 

[edorr]

I voted No as well, but have to admit I am taking advantage of the situation by moving out of the market last week in order to get back in at a lower price; I considered the whole thing very predictable.

Why not go short? If you feel pretty strongly about it you can make a killing. I was thinking about it myself, but I'm too risk averse and vowed not to get involved in this casino. Premiums on put options are an indication on what expectation of probability of a defaults the market has.

 

[edorr]

I don't think so. Bohner is afraid of the 80 mad, petulant children in his house, but he's not one of them. If the Dems have the testicular fortitude to hold their ground, Bohner will put a clean CR to a vote at the last minute, and it will pass.

The next tantrum awaits.

Tim

My expectation as well. He does not want to go down in history as the guy that drove the world economy into the ground to placate a bunch of "petulant children" that elected to join his political club.

 

[mep]

I won't be surprised if we go into default. Ted Cruz seems to be running the show, not Mr. Suntan. Cruz is hell-bent on running the country into the ground in order to make some other Tea Party nut bags happy. I think a dream ticket for the GOP would be Cruz and either Palin or Bachman because they are all idiots. Bachman is freshly back from her trip to Egypt where she expressed her gratitude to the Egyptian military for overthrowing their democracy and blaming 9/11 on the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

[edorr]

I won't be surprised if we go into default. Ted Cruz seems to be running the show, not Mr. Suntan. Cruz is hell-bent on running the country into the ground in order to make some other Tea Party nut bags happy. I think a dream ticket for the GOP would be Cruz and either Palin or Bachman because they are all idiots. Bachman is freshly back from her trip to Egypt where she expressed her gratitude to the Egyptian military for overthrowing their democracy and blaming 9/11 on the Muslim Brotherhood.

It won't happen. If Boehner brings the ceiling to a vote ,which he will, it will pass. All that is needed is a handful of defections. Many republicans are fed up with this circus and will draw a line in the sand.

 

[mep]

It won't happen. If Boehner brings the ceiling to a vote ,which he will, it will pass. All that is needed is a handful of defections. Many republicans are fed up with this circus and will draw a line in the sand.

I sure hope you are right. I'm still in shock that the Republicans let a freshman jackass take over their party and I'm leery that they will rein him in now. As one Republican said: We have already jumped over the cliff and lit ourselves on fire so we may as well stick it out now.

 

[edorr]

I sure hope you are right. I'm still in shock that the Republicans let a freshman jackass take over their party and I'm leery that they will rein him in now. As one Republican said: We have already jumped over the cliff and lit ourselves on fire so we may as well stick it out now.

The problem is that freshman jackass represent a voting constituency with enough critical mass to change the makeup of the party from a cozy club of good old boys to an angry mob of Joe the plumbers that don't give a rat's ass about a US default. Interesting times ahead.

 

[mep]

The problem is that freshman jackass represent a voting constituency with enough critical mass to change the makeup of the party from a cozy club of good old boys to an angry mob of Joe the plumbers that don't give a rat's ass about a US default. Interesting times ahead.

Which is exactly why I don't share your confidence that default will be avoided.

 

[edorr]

Which is exactly why I don't share your confidence that default will be avoided.

A default would tank the stock portfolio of the good old boys club. The Joe the plumbers have less skin in the game.... We'll see.