This Phone Is Microsoft's Best, Maybe Only, Chance At Winning The Smartphone War

Steve Williams

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By Jay Yarow | Business Insider

During the keynote at Microsoft's big developer conference, CEO Steve Ballmer very subtly highlighted what could be the key to the company's future in smartphones.
After talking about two high-end smartphones from Nokia, he picked up a Nokia Lumia 521.
He said, "It too is a beautiful product. This product will be sold outside of the United States. Primarily in countries where the phone operator do not subsidize, that is they do not reduce the price of the phone. But this phone will be sold for just over $150, which is really quite amazing for a product that's this beautiful, this gorgeous, and at this kind of inexpensive price."
Catch that? It's a $150 smartphone that runs a full, current version of the Windows Phone operating system. ( If Apple rolls out a low-cost iPhone, most people think it will cost at least twice as much.)
Microsoft believes that much of Android's market share gains have come in emerging markets, where people are buying cheap phones that run older versions of the operating system. This is part of the reason that Android is still fragmented, with most users on Gingerbread, a three year-old version of the operating system.
Those Android users aren't taking full advantage of the operating system, which is why Apple CEO Tim Cook brags about iOS usage crushing Android usage, despite the disparity in market share between the two operating systems.
If users in emerging markets buy Windows Phones, Microsoft thinks they will actually take advantage of web browsing, email, and apps on the Windows Phone, unlike on Android.
If Microsoft is going to turn around its fortunes in the smartphone world, a cheap Nokia phone could be a good starting point. A $150, fully capable, smartphone is a really good deal.
If the cheap phone sells, then Microsoft will start gaining market share. If Microsoft starts getting some share, then it will be an easy story for the media to tell — Microsoft comes back from the brink of death to grab share. Good press can lead to better sales.
More importantly, if its share goes from single digits to double digits, then developers like Instagram will probably stop ignoring the Windows Phone platform. Once that happens, and Windows Phone gets better apps, then it should lead to more high-end phone sales.
This is all a long shot, of course. There's no reason to think developing markets are any more interested in Windows Phone than the developed markets.
But, attacking the low-end of the market seems like a good idea.
The high-end of the market is basically at saturation, which is why Apple's iPhone business is slowing down.
Microsoft isn't going to take much share going hard after the U.S. market. It has to find the markets where smartphones are still new, and try to get those people on Windows phones.
 

asiufy

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Microsoft believes that much of Android's market share gains have come in emerging markets, where people are buying cheap phones that run older versions of the operating system. This is part of the reason that Android is still fragmented, with most users on Gingerbread, a three year-old version of the operating system.
Those Android users aren't taking full advantage of the operating system, which is why Apple CEO Tim Cook brags about iOS usage crushing Android usage, despite the disparity in market share between the two operating systems.

What do you know? Microsoft is right!
Android sells more in "developing" (read, poor) countries, as well as poor areas within rich(er) countries. And yes, more often than not, the Android phones that sell for cheap are crummy affairs, with outdated OSes. Just bought a batch of Samsungs for testing purposes, and they came with Android 2.3. I believe we're up to 4.2 now...
Here's one hoping Microsoft (and Nokia) suceeds in their strategy, as Windows Phone is a much better OS than Android.

alexandre
 

amirm

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The way Nokia held on to the business it has in the last few years, was by focusing on cheaper "smartphones" in less developed markets. They used to run their OS and seems like now they will run Windows.

The key will be the number of apps. I don't have data on how many country specific apps there are and Windows share of those.

I was at Verizon store couple of days ago buying my son a Samsung Note 2. While they were setting that up, I watched them walk a couple through a sales presentation. They had four stations. They started at the right which was yesterday's news Android phones like Motorola. The next step was the Apple products. Then Windows 8. Final and the one they are in love with for you to buy was the Samsung station with the S4 and such. And this is the home town of Microsoft! They pointed out lack of apps as a problem for Microsoft

I asked my agent how well the S4 was selling. He said it was doing exceptionally well except for the iPhone users who would return it the next day because they couldn't figure out how to use it. The tone in his voice was to put down those people for not giving a phone a chance and being such newbies as to not be able to figure out a phone. This is consistent with other agents I have worked with during the last 12 months there. The people there truly think the Samsung and Andorids are the top choice and sell iPhones to people who ask for that specifically against their recommendation. Quite surprising to me again given the popularity of iPhones. They never position the two platforms as equally good.
 

asiufy

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Of course not, why would they? You can't sell iPhones at a discount, Apple won't let them. Samsung, on the other hand...

Anyway, you're right, Nokia's bread and butter has always been the cheapie phones for those "less developed" markets. Nokia was #1 for the longest time here in Brazil, and I think they might've lost that position just last year or so.

In the US, Nokia always had problems getting operator mindshare (and shelf/station space). You'd think that with the Microsoft connection, they'd get over that, but apparently they didn't. That's why I think it's healthy that they're not focusing entirely on that market/sector.

Us poor folks were very good for Nokia, and I guess we still can be :)

alexandre
 

amirm

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Of course not, why would they? You can't sell iPhones at a discount, Apple won't let them. Samsung, on the other hand...
What discount? The price for Samsung S4 is $199 so is the price for iPhone 5 (both with 2-year contract). You can't bargain either. The price without contract is $640 for both. Looking at the web site, you can buy an iPhone 4 for free but the cheapest Samsung smartphone is $50. Both phones have a non-contract price of $440. So the discounting if any is in favor of Apple it seems.

What are the prices where you live?
 

Steve Williams

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The people there truly think the Samsung and Andorids are the top choice and sell iPhones to people who ask for that specifically against their recommendation.

Perhaps but IMO who the heck buys an iphone from some mall or store like Best Buy or Circuit City? Everyone I know who buys an iphone, purchase it either online at the Apple Store where they get exceptional service from someone who isn't talking to you from Bangalore and says his name is Jim, or from a local Apple store where once again the service is second to none.

I've never tried to convince anyone to use an iphone nor have I knowledge of anyone who returned it the next day because they couldn't figure it out. Here at WBF IIRC Andre Marc returned his after several weeks because of poor battery life
 

amirm

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Perhaps but IMO who the heck buys an iphone from some mall or store like Best Buy or Circuit City? Everyone I know who buys an iphone, purchase it either online at the Apple Store where they get exceptional service from someone who isn't talking to you from Bangalore and says his name is Jim, or from a local Apple store where once again the service is second to none.
This is at a Verizon wireless store Steve. They do far more volume than any other retailer. And at any rate, more correctly reflect the carrier's opinion of what is in their best interest. Based on this one store experience, it seems that Verizon has an affinity for Android/Samsung that they do not have for other brands, Apple included. They show them all but if you rely on their recommendation on what is best, they steer you toward Samsung. It used to be S3 and now it is S4.
 

Steve Williams

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I understand that it's a Verizon store but IMO that isn't where most people purchase their iPhones. Perhaps I am mistaken. As to my reference to Bangalore IIRC AT&T switches their customer service to said location after a certain hour where I have talked to "Jim"
 

Phelonious Ponk

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You know retail, Amir. You should know that the first question to ask is what the margins are. If one makes significantly more for the store - in direct margins, rebates, incentives - the store will drive sales to those phones. If the money is all the same, no sales person in their right mind is going to try to talk a customer out of buying a product they already want, and are standing there asking to buy.

Follow the money....

We went looking for smartphones for my wife and son recently. The Verizon store seemed pretty neutral. Liked them both, but thought the iPhone was easier to learn/operate. The T-Mobile store pushed the Samsung hard. I don't know what that means, but they had very different pricing models, T-Mobile charged full price for the phone, but financed it over time, no contract, and lower rates for service. Verizon had the standard mobile model of deeply discounting the phones, but hiding their cost in the contracted service charges.

Tim
 

asiufy

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What discount? The price for Samsung S4 is $199 so is the price for iPhone 5 (both with 2-year contract). You can't bargain either. The price without contract is $640 for both. Looking at the web site, you can buy an iPhone 4 for free but the cheapest Samsung smartphone is $50. Both phones have a non-contract price of $440. So the discounting if any is in favor of Apple it seems.

What are the prices where you live?

Samsung has a zillion models. Apple has 3 or 4.
Prices here: R$ 2.000 for an iPhone, and R$ 2.500 for a S4. 1 US$ = 2,20 R$

But I'm not talking about specific carriers and/or prices in specific countries. Apple does not allow discounts, period. Samsung does. The S4 is more expensive because it's newer. It'll be $0 soon enough.


Tim,

My point exactly. Having some retail experience, I know how it goes. Samsung has a huge mix of products, some high margin, some not. The S4 might just be that high margin product. Apple has 3 or 4, most likely with a fixed margin.
T-Mobile just started selling the iPhone the other day. Verizon was the 2nd to last carrier to add the iPhone as well. They traditionally sold Android (and other p.o.s. before that).


alexandre
 

Matt193

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My Verizon corporate store pushes Android phones extremely hard and basically calls you an idiot for even considering a iPhone. When I was there on Monday, I got into a fairly heated discussion with the Manager about the iPhone. I also pointed out that the Motorola devices are becoming old and he thought I was nuts and just following what I read on the internet. I visited three Verizon stores before I ended up making my purchase. None of them pushed iPhones, and in fact mostly pushed Motorola and Samsung models except for the S3; all of them said that it was a poor phone for this area due to a weak radio.

If Windows does eventually catch on, I would have no problem buying a Windows powered phone.
 

amirm

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The "anti-iphone" culture may be rooted in the time frame that Verizon did not have iPhone. I.e. when AT&T had the exclusivity. I suspect their crew was trained well to sell against iPhone and to this day, they carry on those skills. If Apple ever made a mistake, it was to go exclusive with AT&T. Had they provided a phone to Verizon, Android would have never established a foothold, and be at the same level Windows is. Verizon is the #1 consumer carrier in US and that time were even stronger. AT&T was in the dog house. Apple left the #1 market share guy, Verizon, to fend for itself. So they put their full force and power behind Android and created a mass market for it. They had no choice. Were they supposed to close their door and go home? Of course not. They had to have a strategy and that was to king make Android much like Apple King made AT&T.

Good thing for us consumers since it created competition and choice for us.
 

asiufy

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The way I see it, the relationship Apple/AT&T was sort of a symbiotic win-win thing. Apple needed a vehicle for the iPhone launch, a carrier that would trust it blindly, and not try to f*ck around the phone/product. And knowing carriers as I do, it's hard enough to convice one, let alone a handful... So, I don't think Apple didn't try to get Verizon on board for the iPhone launch, it's just that Verizon (and probably others) didn't go for it. As you mentioned, AT&T was not doing so great back then, so they sort of saw an opportunity there, and scored big. And since Apple had nothing to show pre-launch, the least AT&T could demand was exclusivity for a number of years...


alexandre
 

amirm

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I doubt that Apple needed, or thought it needed a weak carrier. The dynamics at the time was that it simply was easier to design a GSM phone since most of the world used it. Verizon was almost a lone stand-out with CDMA at the time. Building a GSM phone also meant easier expansion into the rest of the world. Established companies could afford to have multiple development teams building phones with different platforms. Apple could not so picked one. And that choice as I mentioned, gave birth to Android. I suspect AT&T would not have been able to accomplish the same with Android that Verizon did. Verizon had a superb network, very high level of customer service, and a "second rate" platform relative to Apple. AT&T had lousy network, lousy customer service and would not as such been able to do as much with Android.

Verizon is the reason Samsung is successful.

But you are right that Verizon would not have accepted all the Apple rules as is. Carriers prior to Apple entering the market had absolute power and would not have yielded to a newcomer the way AT&T did.
 

Phelonious Ponk

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The "anti-iphone" culture may be rooted in the time frame that Verizon did not have iPhone. I.e. when AT&T had the exclusivity. I suspect their crew was trained well to sell against iPhone and to this day, they carry on those skills. If Apple ever made a mistake, it was to go exclusive with AT&T. Had they provided a phone to Verizon, Android would have never established a foothold, and be at the same level Windows is. Verizon is the #1 consumer carrier in US and that time were even stronger. AT&T was in the dog house. Apple left the #1 market share guy, Verizon, to fend for itself. So they put their full force and power behind Android and created a mass market for it. They had no choice. Were they supposed to close their door and go home? Of course not. They had to have a strategy and that was to king make Android much like Apple King made AT&T.

Good thing for us consumers since it created competition and choice for us.

Now that's funny. Remember Apple's PDA? The cube? But you're right, AT&T exclusivity didn't serve Apple well. They're smart guys and I'm sure they had a sound strategy; it just didn't work as planned. FWIW, the Verizon store - or the one employee we talked to there - didn't push either option. The guy at the T-Mobile store almost insulted me for owning an iPhone. Bad form, telling the customer he's dumb. I don't imagine that sells a lot of phones.

Tim
 

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