Predicting the End of Physical Media?

[RBFC]

Check this out:

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/11/15/music-lovers-prepare-to-say-goodbye-to-the-cd/?ncid=webmail1

Lee

 

[garylkoh]

I haven't played a CD for over 2 years now. I still buy CDs but the moment I get it, it goes into my ripper and the disc gets put away. I can still play CDs if someone brings one in during a show, but that goes into the CD-ROM drive on my music server. When I hit "play" there's a second's pause as it buffers into memory. If the same lossless file could be bought off a download, I wouldn't have bought the CD.

Even the last few LPs I bought came with a coupon for a free mp3 download. I wonder how long it will take before it's a flac or aac download?

 

[Johnny Vinyl]

As I said on CNET and elsewhere when I first read the original article......BUNK! Compact disc revenue is still in the billions of dollars and outstrips digital from a revenue perspective, so 2012 is early by at least 5 years IMO. There is no question that the shift has already started, but not as soon as Side-Line Mag claims. I took it purely as a ploy to gain exposure for their site, as they had nothing of substance to back it up.. I guess it worked!

 

[Old Listener]

I haven't played a CD for over 2 years now. I still buy CDs but the moment I get it, it goes into my ripper and the disc gets put away. I can still play CDs if someone brings one in during a show, but that goes into the CD-ROM drive on my music server. When I hit "play" there's a second's pause as it buffers into memory. If the same lossless file could be bought off a download, I wouldn't have bought the CD.

My buying habits are similar to yours. Buy a CD, rip it to Flac music files and put the physical CD away.

I have been acquiring the 8 volumes of Gottschalk piano music played by Philip Martin on the cheap from Berkshire Record Outlet and Amazon Marketplace. When no bargains appeared for several months for the Vol. 8 Cd, I bought it as a 16/44.1 flac download directly from Hyperion.

I think the end of 2012 number for the end of CD sales is unfounded but sales of CDs in the USA have been declining at a great rate and the bricks and mortar infrastructure is rapidly disappearing.

Bill

 

[RBFC]

iTunes is probably responsible for the onset of physical music media's demise. The proliferation of downloads is certainly continuing the trend. However, with recent market penetration of Blu-ray movie players and the associated software, I believe it'll be several years until all entertainment media fall from the cloud.

Lee

 

[fas42]

I feel a great disquiet at the thought of turning all recordings into a form which is easily erased. I was in the computer game for 35 years, and have zero trust and confidence in the ability for computerised information to remain inviolable. As a good bit of conspiracy paranoia, imagine some brilliant but fiendishly evil chap who hates all music, and creates a computer virus which stealthily spreads out to every device which contains music files. And at some key moment the trigger is pulled and all music files that can be found are thoroughly erased. Yes, there will be backups for much of it, but a lot of of very significant material will be lost forever.

No, call me old fashioned and a worry wart, but I want something that can't be fiddled with, or possibily corrupted by someone fooling around on a keyboard on the other side of the world ...

Frank

 

[audioguy]

I feel a great disquiet at the thought of turning all recordings into a form which is easily erased. I was in the computer game for 35 years, and have zero trust and confidence in the ability for computerised information to remain inviolable. As a good bit of conspiracy paranoia, imagine some brilliant but fiendishly evil chap who hates all music, and creates a computer virus which stealthily spreads out to every device which contains music files. And at some key moment the trigger is pulled and all music files that can be found are thoroughly erased. Yes, there will be backups for much of it, but a lot of of very significant material will be lost forever.

No, call me old fashioned and a worry wart, but I want something that can't be fiddled with, or possibily corrupted by someone fooling around on a keyboard on the other side of the world ...

Frank

+1 We agree on something!!

 

[Ronm1]

The only media I play is physical, Redbook or HiRes. Vinyl free zone, though.

 

[Phelonious Ponk]

I predict the demise of CDs as a mass market medium, followed a few years later by the quiet development of a collector's market of middle-aged men from the CD era, followed by the development of new, very high-end audiophile cd transports, fueled by the belief that, in spite of all evidence to the contrary, CDs are warmer, more musical and closer to the original event than any digital file can ever be.

The amazing Kreskin

Seriously, the end of next year? I don't think so.

Tim

 

[fas42]

I predict the demise of CDs as a mass market medium, followed a few years later by the quiet development of a collector's market of middle-aged men from the CD era, followed by the development of new, very high-end audiophile cd transports, fueled by the belief that, in spite of all evidence to the contrary, CDs are warmer, more musical and closer to the original event than any digital file can ever be.

Very nice, Tim, very nice ... ;-)

Frank

 

[garylkoh]

As a good bit of conspiracy paranoia, imagine some brilliant but fiendishly evil chap who hates all music, and creates a computer virus which stealthily spreads out to every device which contains music files. And at some key moment the trigger is pulled and all music files that can be found are thoroughly erased. Yes, there will be backups for much of it, but a lot of of very significant material will be lost forever.

I was in the computer industry for 20 years then retired from the industry 12 years ago. My music servers are all disconnected from the Internet, stripped of anything that would let them do automatic updates, etc. I treat them as a "black box".

Having done disaster recovery planning for a nation (Singapore), I have off-site backups of all my music - also in non-connected mode. I've been exploring also back-up to the cloud. Recovery is much, much more difficult than back-up..... and that has also been tested.

 

[Old Listener]

As a good bit of conspiracy paranoia, imagine some brilliant but fiendishly evil chap who hates all music, and creates a computer virus which stealthily spreads out to every device which contains music files. And at some key moment the trigger is pulled and all music files that can be found are thoroughly erased. Yes, there will be backups for much of it, but a lot of of very significant material will be lost forever.

Since many people don't make regular backups of their music files, they don't need any help from an evil chap to destroy their collection of music files.
---
Budget cuts and carelessness have caused many tapes of recording sessions (and master tapes later along the process) to be discarded. A recent warehouse fire (in S. Calif.?) destroyed lots of material. No high-tech required.

Bill

 

[audioguy]

I was in the computer industry for 20 years then retired from the industry 12 years ago. My music servers are all disconnected from the Internet, stripped of anything that would let them do automatic updates, etc. I treat them as a "black box".

Having done disaster recovery planning for a nation (Singapore), I have off-site backups of all my music - also in non-connected mode. I've been exploring also back-up to the cloud. Recovery is much, much more difficult than back-up..... and that has also been tested.

I made a backup on a spare drive (2 terrabytes for $80!!) and shipped it to a friend of mine (and he did the same with his music). So unless his home and mine get struck by lightening and burn to the ground at the same time, I am safe.

Gary: Since you disconnected your server from the internet, do you download music to another PC and then use a thumb drive to transfer to your server?

 

[Old Listener]

My music servers are all disconnected from the Internet, stripped of anything that would let them do automatic updates, etc. I treat them as a "black box".

Having done disaster recovery planning for a nation (Singapore), I have off-site backups of all my music - also in non-connected mode. ... Recovery is much, much more difficult than back-up..... and that has also been tested.

I dedicate my MusicPC to the one purpose. It does have a internet connection which I use only for tag lookup in JRiver MC. I use a hardware firewall between the cable modem and my LAN. Other than a Shared Docs folder, no folders on that PC are shared on my LAN. I run the MusicPC like a production computer in a datacenter. I only do software upgrades to JRiver MC after I've tested the new version on another PC.

I keep two generations of backups of all the files on the MusicPC and my personalPC and my wife's PC. A friend keeps one generation (a single backup drive) at his house and we exchange generations of backups at intervals when we have lunch or share a bottle of port.

I keep a mirror image of the music files and the JRiver MC database on my personal PC. I also archive new music files to a separate USB drive to protect against a human error that goes unnoticed for several backup generations.

I agree that verifying that you can actually restore your files is crucial. I use robocopy through batch files and shortcuts to make backups and do restorations with it too. The whole process gets regular workouts so I am quite sure I can make it work when the need for restoration arises.

This may sound like a lot of work but it isn't. Like most things about computers, knowledge, facility with specific computer software and discipline make the difference between success and failure.

Bill

 

[Steve Williams]

All great ideas Bill and with your computer background makes a lot of sense

 

[garylkoh]

I made a backup on a spare drive (2 terrabytes for $80!!) and shipped it to a friend of mine (and he did the same with his music). So unless his home and mine get struck by lightening and burn to the ground at the same time, I am safe.

Gary: Since you disconnected your server from the internet, do you download music to another PC and then use a thumb drive to transfer to your server?

Off-site storage is always good insurance - out of state, out of the country. If you live in an earthquake zone, send it to someone outside it. If you live in a hurricane zone, send it to someone outside. The big problem with off-site storage is keeping it current. Backup management is an art as well as a science.

I download and rip music on another PC. Then, I use a USB stick to transfer files to the server. On that computer, I use dBpoweramp to rip music, tag and download cover art.

Speed is not something you think about when picking USB thumb drives, but it can vary hugely and a CD's worth can be copied from as slow as 8 mins to under 1 min. I use a Victorinox (the Swiss-knife brand!!) that makes one of the fastest 16GB drives I've ever come across.

 

[garylkoh]

I dedicate my MusicPC to the one purpose. It does have a internet connection which I use only for tag lookup in JRiver MC. I use a hardware firewall between the cable modem and my LAN. Other than a Shared Docs folder, no folders on that PC are shared on my LAN. I run the MusicPC like a production computer in a datacenter. I only do software upgrades to JRiver MC after I've tested the new version on another PC.

I keep two generations of backups of all the files on the MusicPC and my personalPC and my wife's PC. A friend keeps one generation (a single backup drive) at his house and we exchange generations of backups at intervals when we have lunch or share a bottle of port.

I keep a mirror image of the music files and the JRiver MC database on my personal PC. I also archive new music files to a separate USB drive to protect against a human error that goes unnoticed for several backup generations.

I agree that verifying that you can actually restore your files is crucial. I use robocopy through batch files and shortcuts to make backups and do restorations with it too. The whole process gets regular workouts so I am quite sure I can make it work when the need for restoration arises.

This may sound like a lot of work but it isn't. Like most things about computers, knowledge, facility with specific computer software and discipline make the difference between success and failure.

Bill

All good ideas, Bill. I also have an internet connection on my Music Server and that is through a hardware firewall, but the network adapter is always disabled. I turn it on only for long enough to update Windows - although I always make sure that the update is stable enough on other computers before updating the Music Server.

It's not much work to keep things backed-up. It's A LOT more work to re-rip your entire music database.

 

[microstrip]

(...) This may sound like a lot of work but it isn't. Like most things about computers, knowledge, facility with specific computer software and discipline make the difference between success and failure.

Bill

Bill,

You said it all. I use (or should use ..) all these rules for my daily work. But I want to keep my music and cooking free from them!

I am sure that sometime in the future we will have standard, cheap, easy to use and maintenance free ways of listening to virtual music. But IMHO we are not yet arrived to this point.

It is nice to know you like port , also known as Vinho do Porto. If you would live in my neighborhood I think I could assure your advice and help also sharing some Porto wine - I keep a few bottles in my cellar, the one we are drinking (and unhappily is almost empty...) is a 1927 vintage!

 

[fas42]

I was in the computer industry for 20 years then retired from the industry 12 years ago. My music servers are all disconnected from the Internet, stripped of anything that would let them do automatic updates, etc. I treat them as a "black box".

Having done disaster recovery planning for a nation (Singapore), I have off-site backups of all my music - also in non-connected mode. I've been exploring also back-up to the cloud. Recovery is much, much more difficult than back-up..... and that has also been tested.

All excellent techniques, Gary. The trouble is, I did say "brilliant", evil chap, and the point of weakness is when you DO connect to the servers, to check their status, and to update their contents. Yes, it may be only a short period of time, but if you have the right, malevolent but intelligent software just lurking in the background, waiting for the time that you do talk to these key servers, that may be all you need to become infected. It's a classic "spy vs. spy" scenario, and ultimately there is no true way of always being secure; the real world certainly proves that!

I'm sure it will never happen, but I just feel comfortable knowing all the music is in a read only, unable to be touched by computer program, form ...

Frank

 

[NorthStar]

When I die all the music lovers in my family will inherit all my physical CDs, LPs, SACDs, DVD-Audios, Blu-rays, HD DVDs, DVDs and all that Jazzy gear...

Before I die and up to my last breath I will still accumulate music on physical medias.
(Compact Discs)

** And if ever they don't make them till that last day, I will still go to second-hand audio stores.
I will NEVER be without them for as long as I live...

And they will keep on spinning for generations to come...

They can take away anything they want from this planet, but they can't take away my Blues.