Nobody ever rings a bell!

[RogerD]

At the top,but the ISEE sentiment for equities registered a whopping 230(highest in 5 years) today and coupled with this parabolic rise and a weekly doji.

 

[amirm]

Ok, what's that in English? That equities are set to rise in the future with positive sentiments?

 

[RogerD]

Ok, what's that in English? That equities are set to rise in the future with positive sentiments?

amirm,

Actually a very high sentiment reading is not usually bullish,especially after a very large advance. It is a contrary indicator,which could be bearish here,meaning that a change in trend is possible.

 

[flez007]

Ok, what's that in English? That equities are set to rise in the future with positive sentiments?

Expect them to recover an average trend, that is .. Going down...

 

[RogerD]

A stock market poem

 

[RogerD]

This is the 4th day in a row that the Dow has failed to close above 11,500 after rising above it.

 

[RogerD]

I haven't updated this thread lately,but things are in fact looking toppy here. Sometimes the market can remain extremely overbought for a long time before turning down.

http://www.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Default/media/6b8af369-d1a2-45ed-a4b0-c85bfff7293e

 

[amirm]

I understand there is a battle brewing between those who think the bull market will only last a couple of years and those who say it will keep going for 5-7 years. Sounds like you fall in the former category? If so, I hope you are wrong because my portfolio manager believes in the latter and is investing for me in that manner .

 

[RogerD]

Amir,

I think we will know very soon. If the Dow breaks 11750, I would conclude that there has been a trend change. The above chart is a harmonic pattern,it is a bearish crab,if that holds true a test of 10K is possible.

http://www.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Default/media/287262ac-4268-4758-9b16-9b27e2d140a9

Update: This morning we gapped down in a possible 3rd wave. The bearish outcome has taken a step foward. The 12K level is support short term as well as 1294.26 in the S&P500

 

[mep]

I bailed out of the market when the DOW hit 10,000 as I didn't think the market could sustain 10,000. Of course right after I did that the market climbed to 12,000.

 

[RogerD]

I bailed out of the market when the DOW hit 10,000 as I didn't think the market could sustain 10,000. Of course right after I did that the market climbed to 12,000.

The wonders of QE,QElite,and QE2, but Bill Gross says no QE3 and has liquidated all his UST position!

 

[Steve Williams]

you're getting me worried Roger as we are getting close to 11,750

 

[RogerD]

you're getting me worried Roger as we are getting close to 11,750

Steve,

One can never know what will cause a possible top to come in. I only look at patterns and other technical indicators that signal a trend change. All world markets are signaling such a change.

As i write this the terrible situation in Japan has triggered drops in Asia,Europe and in the U.S. futures market tonight. As for 11750 it won't hold,and I will stand by my conclusion that at least in my work that produces a sell signal. No recommendation given.

 

[RogerD]

Although this pattern is an extremely rare expanding triangle, it's implications are surely bearish, if it is, a very swift decline should happen soon.

http://www.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Default/media/600a8e98-f4cc-442b-8ab5-ed09a30951fb

At todays close

http://www.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Default/media/08143469-5f5a-4b20-88ea-28ba4a625d3b

This last chart clearly shows a H&S top formation which broke the neckline and came back to do a technical back test of that line. A new low should follow,if another failed rally follows that,a primary sell signal will be in place.

EWT count 60 minute S&P 500

http://www.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Default/media/9af5108a-813f-422f-997c-3e63ca4d4edc

The gap in the S&P at 1319 was filled today on extremely low volume,in fact this 7 day rally has been on decresing volume. This has all the trade marks of a "P" rally. The "P" stands for phony.

 

[RogerD]

I'll post these 2 final charts. One is MCD,McDonalds and the other is AZO,Autozone. McDonalds has a large 5 wave down from a Primary V wave advance that is multi-year. After the 5 wave decline it has a corrective wave 2 up, and then another small 5 wave down followed by a 3 wave corrective up. The next 5 waves down should intensify and lead to lower lows.

AZO has just finished it's multi year advance marked V. Notice the perfect child,parent fractal in place. AZO should now decline below the 246 low made by the previous 4th wave low.

These are primary tops and should lead to much lower lows.

I post about market prices because I find it fascinating. No recommendation given.

MCD
http://www.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Default/media/4dce7bc0-e74d-43f4-b0b0-7aaddc47eaa2

AZO
http://www.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Default/media/94089c40-b833-4953-9091-f010330e6fb1

 

[Steve Williams]

You're starting to scare me Roger

 

[RogerD]

Steve,
I give no recommendation because I could always be wrong. There is a way to hedge your portofolio against what a call a primary change of trend. Ask your broker about puts on the S&P 500. Most pros are buying out to June or July,for example the june 1270's are quoted at 300.00,if the S&P500 declines down to 1170,that put would be selling for 1000.00. They move point for point when in the money. Just a suggestion for a way to hedge accordinally. For 3000.00 spent 300.00 x 10, it could be good insurance.

or you could purchase puts on larger pct shares held,IBM,CAT,MMM,ect right now because the VIX is low, they are cheap.

Most frown on going short as your risk is unlimited. But there are ways to hedge and you know what your risk is.

 

[Steve Williams]

I'm not a gambler Roger.

 

[RogerD]

I'm not a gambler Roger.

That's fine. Some say it's gambling,I call it insurance.


Uh oh!

http://www.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Default/media/37cfe6d5-6ca8-4e1a-ab25-0fd7c61971e9

http://content.screencast.com/users...88-459e-9bc8-1272e0c44bfa/2011-03-28_1348.png

Tuesday update:

If the Harmonic Crab pattern is valid the market should make it's final top today and decline into next week starting tomorrow.

http://content.screencast.com/users...fa-49a6-9656-b64192db929b/2011-03-29_0851.png

Friday update: The topping patterns look to be complete at todays close.

http://www.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Default/media/e45144ea-4e5b-4f38-ac71-ded6f422b925

http://www.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Default/media/6e671cb8-68b4-45da-914f-98409c3f462a

04/05/11

Significant Primary tops take time and a few days doesn't really matter. This top judging by the rate of change of the advance since the March 09 low,should be of a historical nature. IMHO

04/08/11

The Dow Transportation average looks to be leading the market down. The Trans pattern is a huge termination pattern and there is a good chance it could lead to a waterfall event in the coming days or weeks.

The USD is also looking very bad here. The implications are that this could be the start of a dollar panic and the Fed is forced to raise rates unexpectedly. With margin at 300pct and historical highs the equity market could react in a 'black swan" manner.

04/07/2012 Is the Supercycle top finally at hand?

http://content.screencast.com/users...74-43c3-9efb-5430e2bef7c3/2012-04-07_1200.png

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!

04/24/2012

http://screencast.com/t/GJn9qMPHGB

1987

http://screencast.com/t/gVq6qgNrso

05/4/2012

The Great Unification Top

http://screencast.com/t/ZlAqvvgw

05/05/2012

http://screencast.com/t/4p00yOloec5J

http://screencast.com/t/P4rhuAkzBgXQ

http://screencast.com/t/OVAiarD1T

http://screencast.com/t/1cbuwV4Bw