Global warming is a myth?

[rockitman]

Ignorance scares me even more. While 'Experts' will occasionally make a mistake, at least it is quickly corrected. Mistakes by 'ignorance' last for years.

weather experts generally make mistakes on a daily basis.

 

[wisnon]

All I'm saying is predicting the probability of a future discrete event (i.e. a massive solar flare) based on a small set of historical data is completely different proposition than concluding whether or not a historical series of accurate data is trending up or just showing random variance around a steady average.

The former is a so called "black swan event", which is inherently unpredicatable (read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book if you're interested). The latter is statistics 101.

We can have a discussion about the likelyhood of the world getting wiped out in a nuclear war (black swan). Nothing to do with global warming. Different thread.

Edorr its not a specific event, but rather a cyclic increase in solar activity that we are observing and its impact on modern tech.

If I can find it again, I will give you a link

 

[wisnon]

Ignorance scares me even more. While 'Experts' will occasionally make a mistake, at least it is quickly corrected. Mistakes by 'ignorance' last for years.

Not sure if willful deceit/obfuscation or ignorance takes the "pride" of place. Both are dangerous. Sometimes the science "establishment" acts as the new "religion". All is am saying is be vigilant and use critical thinking.

 

[rblnr]

critical thinking = data in this case IMO.

 

[edorr]

Edorr its not a specific event, but rather a cyclic increase in solar activity that we are observing and its impact on modern tech.

If I can find it again, I will give you a link

A massive flare would be a black swan event because we have never had one in recorded history.

If you have 100 years worth of data about a phenomenon that has taken place billions of years (the physics of flares have not changed during this time), you can never say there is a cyclical increase with any level of confidence, and you certainly cannot extrapolate a recent uptick into the future - this is random variance.

It would be like saying we have been hit by meteorites more often recently (say last decade) than in the past (going back 100 years), so we are more likely to be wiped out by a big one during the next 25 years. Complete bogus (unless there is plausible model that explains causation of increased meteorite hits - in the absence of such a model, this is random variance).

 

[wisnon]

No Edorr…not that…a GENERAL rise in activity on a cyclical basis. Not black swan at all and very predictable in occurance, but not intensity nor impact on current living technology standards. I was a big GPS senthusiast a few years back when consumer GPS was nascent and Garmin/TomTom were stock market darlings. It was widely known then that there was a good possibility that we could lose GPS satellite communication because of the solar flare cycle.

The impact on massive power transformers in the gavest of case could make the Iceland ash cloud seem like a joke. It can take 6 months or more to repair such damage to power transmission infrastructure. Imagine half of the US being taken out, or half of Europe? What would be the impact? Our civilization is absolutely fragile.

 

[BlueFox]

weather experts generally make mistakes on a daily basis.

True, but I suspect they are right more often than not. Especially compared to those who use the Farmer's Almanac, or whether or not a groundhog saw it's shadow, to predict the weather.

 

[edorr]

No Edorr…not that…a GENERAL rise in activity on a cyclical basis. Not black swan at all and very predictable in occurance, but not intensity nor impact on current living technology standards. I was a big GPS senthusiast a few years back when consumer GPS was nascent and Garmin/TomTom were stock market darlings. It was widely known then that there was a good possibility that we could lose GPS satellite communication because of the solar flare cycle.

The impact on massive power transformers in the gavest of case could make the Iceland ash cloud seem like a joke. It can take 6 months or more to repair such damage to power transmission infrastructure. Imagine half of the US being taken out, or half of Europe? What would be the impact? Our civilization is absolutely fragile.

Modern society has obviously become more sensitive to the impact of flares - whether there is a cyclical increase of flare activity cannot be ascertained with 100 years worth of data. We also do not know the statistical probability of "a good possibility that we could lose GPS satellite communication because of the solar flare cycle", because this would be a black swan event (it has never happened, just like a decline in housing prices had not happened before the sub prime crisis)

 

[andromedaaudio]

Remember Al gore , mr green .
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ity-bill-goes-through-the-insulated-roof.html
The CO2 tax aint no myth , a lot of the so called green politicians and and their research have double agenda s
The earths atmosphere and temp have never been a constant in the 4.500.000.000 year history of the earth.
Burning all the accumulated fossil fuels in a 100-150 year timespan will probably have a influence some way or the other

 

[rbbert]

There are a few different issues here IMO. First is whether global warming is actually occurring and how fast. second is how much human activity contributes; it defies logic and scientific evidence to think that all the heat and pollution generating human activities don't have some effect on our atmosphere's temperature, but how much and is it significant are different questions. Third, if global warming is real, what can we do about it? although I think the answers to #1 and #2 are that global warming is present and getting worse fast, and that human activity is a significant contributor, I really don't know what we can do or what should be done about it. Current political efforts might have a certain "feel good" effect, but I doubt whether they will accomplish anything significantly positive, and they will cost money and perhaps focus attention in the wrong places.

One thing is pretty clear to me: it's not likely to be the people reading and posting here now who will experience the effects of whatever actions and inactions occur today, but it will be our children, grandchildren and further descendants.

 

[rblnr]

One thing is pretty clear to me: it's not likely to be the people reading and posting here now who will experience the effects of whatever actions and inactions occur today, but it will be our children, grandchildren and further descendants.

Right, so we may have to tell our kids and their kids we knew, and did
nothing.

 

[andromedaaudio]

In 50- 100 years we use nuclear fusion (energy of the stars ), and the problem aint a problem no more