The Ken Kessler theory

[DaveyF]

I wasn't at RMAF, But I understand that there was a forum hosted by KK that discussed Ken's theory of where the high-end is headed.
Apparently Ken believes that high-end is dying by its own hand; that if it is to continue to exist, let alone thrive, high-end audio has to emulate the example of the luxury watch, pen, and car industries by becoming aspirational and moving upmarket, abandoning the middle-class customers who no longer have the necessary disposable income to spend on audio.

I'm not sure that this is the correct theory, BUT it does seem to be an interesting one. IMO, there may be an off-set to Ken's theory, and that is that as the typical middle- class baby-boomer ( whom I suspect is the primary demographic of the current customer of high-end) may have more disposable income as they become empty nesters. Trouble is that the hobby will need to appeal to the younger generations to continue to survive into the future ( which at the moment I don't think it does)...or maybe Ken's theory is the answer...thoughts?

 

[JackD201]

I believe it isn't the future but rather the present. It's already happened. What I do not agree with is that the middle-class customer have been abandoned. What I see is improved performance in mass market products some with an upper tier (Onkyo - Integra, Sony - ES) and companies positioned in the high end providing lower cost alternatives. Sort of like Rolex having Tudor, Volkswagen having SEAT, Toyota having both Lexus and Scion.

What is waning is the bandwagon effect in favor of ever greater personalization. Looking at the reactions of members to the latest RMAF it is clearly evident that the expression of individual tastes have become much more open. Does this divergence in taste disturb me? Not really. Not at all actually. What's wrong with you liking a Guarneri and me liking something else more? Nothing whatsoever. It just means we both like good sound but probably have different hot buttons/sonic priorities.

What is gone are the days of few choices. I don't weep for those days either especially since the stuff from that era can still be had today if one so wished. So is the High-end dying? I'm certain there will be many casualties but there will be others to try and take their place.

 

[puroagave]

high-end audio has to emulate the example of the luxury watch, pen, and car industries by becoming aspirational and moving upmarket, abandoning the middle-class customers who no longer have the necessary disposable income to spend on audio.

we're already there with $100k, 200K + speaker systems and indvidual components in the high five figures and beyond. if KK is suggesting boutique brands merge lke the watch industry, then the uniqueness will go away. Richemont holdings owns nearly twenty brands: A. Lange & Söhne, Cartier, IWC, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Roger Dubuis, Officine Panerai, Piaget, Vacheron Constantin, Van Cleef & Arpels, etc. thats an impressive list onwed by one guy! and you know what, they're all starting to look alike not in a flattering way either. who knows, quadrivio that owns ARC, mcintosh, sonus faber, etc might be the next richemont.

2-ch perfectionist audio is for the hobbiest. i've hob knobed wwith some high rollers on newport coast, of several events ive been to hosted at beach front homes ive never seen 2-ch systems like a few of the members here on WBF and in the systems around the world thread - i think many of them just dont care for it but theyre all about home theatre and multiroom.

 

[cjfrbw]

What we need is more extraordinarily vain and needy wealthy people requiring gilded status objects in the form of audio products. Showing off is a worthwhile calling in and of itself, and should not even require the objects to sound good, just look good and have some kind of impressive metric that poorer or less flashy people cannot afford or don't need.

Maybe a million dollar subwoofer with an internal combustion engine that allows it to go 0 to 60 in 4 seconds down the marble hall and past the pilasters!

 

[JackD201]

Audio is a poor choice for showing off. There's only really one good seat and it's yours.

 

[andromedaaudio]

KKs view :

I dont see it that way at all , a lot of products brought out lately are merely the same or even worse stuff ,put in a shiny new box .
I stay far away of the endless powercord /cable game as well anyway.
For me the nicest products in high end were designed around the year 2000.
Seems to me that there is not much more progression to be made in analogue amplifier design , hence the " progress" is now tilted towards digital amplification.
And a well designed modern loudspeaker with good characteristics? well it is still driven by a magnet /voicecoil system which drives a membrane
Tubeamps? mostly old design in a new box.
Digital - big $$ no thank you , the worst price performance ratio i know of only bettered by cables .

Satisfying high end does cost a certain amount of money , but satisfaction doesnt lie in chasin the new product rat race, like KK suggested

 

[Phelonious Ponk]

A brilliant, prescient view into the present.

Tim

 

[microstrip]

I can not pretend to debate with KK, my information about the current situation of high-end is very limited, but my view, although perhaps not brilliant, is somewhat different.

We have been reading for the last 20 years that high-end is dying and it seems as robust as ever – and happily the generational renovation in high end is happening.

IMHO, as long as stereo goes on being the standard for music reproduction high-end will not be in danger. There is variation and unpredictability enough in the format to assure that the efforts of the designers and manufacturers who optimize the reproduction of existing recordings to the extreme will be recognized by consumers who are happy to pay for them. The big threat on high-end happened in the early 2000’s when multichannel and it is Trojan horse, the SACD, entered the audio market. Its lack of success and rejection by the sound industry assured the continuation of high-end.

F.Toole was very clear about sound reproduction formats – only multichannel can give us a predictable format, where science and technology can objectively define the sound quality. As long as we will be depending so much on the contribution of the listener to create the illusion associated with the enjoyment of the music and the art there will be space for an industry living on peculiar subjective aspects. Extreme objectivists denying the importance of these aspects will only contribute to the high-end strengthening, as most listeners really want to have more than just the recording. Even if they do not know exactly what they are getting!

 

[audioguy]

The mega wealthy ain't into 2 channel audio.

I'm an HGTV addict and one of the shows I see occasionally is about these mega mansions with what is called "Million Dollar Rooms". I have NEVER seen a nice 2 channel listening room but have seen MANY home theaters. A dedicated HT is the status symbol, not a great music listening room.

A local high end dealer who was in business for 23 years went under about 2 years ago. He described the reason why: The guy who used to walk in (alone) with $20,000 to spend on speakers, turntable, amp, preamp and cables now walks in, family in toe, with the same $20,000 to spend on 5 speakers, sub, video display of some kind, DVD player and pre-processor/amp/receiver. As we all know, 2 channel is, for the most part, a solo event. Home Theater is a family PLUS friends event.

The days of 2 channel (only) listening rooms are numbered. Will it die completely? Who knows? --- but as we (based on the photos that were posted from the RMAF dinner, that would be many of the members of this forum) pass on in the not too distant future, the younger folks will certainly be listening to music but NOT with just 2 speakers. (And while I'm not a "younger folk", I have already moved in that direction).

Just my $0.02

 

[rbbert]

My perception (which of course may be totally wrong) is that there are about as many young people coming to this hobby as there ever were. Things may seem different because: 1) Their absolute numbers are a smaller percentage of the population 2) We're only seeing the potential "real audiophiles", because the poseurs are now looking at home theater as the status symbol / babe magnet instead of 2 channel stereo as when many of us were young 3) There is a much much greater cost disparity now between acceptable entry-level gear and the state-of-the-art.

 

[rbbert]

pushing the auto analogy a little further, one can get a heck of a car for $35-$60k (BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, Lexus, etc), and a heck of a 2-channel system for about the same. Judging by the number of cars sold in that price range, that should be an affordable price range for a serious audiophile; just buy 2 new cars over 20 years instead of 3 or 4.

 

[Bill Hart]

we're already there with $100k, 200K + speaker systems and indvidual components in the high five figures and beyond. if KK is suggesting boutique brands merge lke the watch industry, then the uniqueness will go away. Richemont holdings owns nearly twenty brands: A. Lange & Söhne, Cartier, IWC, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Roger Dubuis, Officine Panerai, Piaget, Vacheron Constantin, Van Cleef & Arpels, etc. thats an impressive list onwed by one guy! and you know what, they're all starting to look alike not in a flattering way either. who knows, quadrivio that owns ARC, mcintosh, sonus faber, etc might be the next richemont.

2-ch perfectionist audio is for the hobbiest. i've hob knobed wwith some high rollers on newport coast, of several events ive been to hosted at beach front homes ive never seen 2-ch systems like a few of the members here on WBF and in the systems around the world thread - i think many of them just dont care for it but theyre all about home theatre and multiroom.

Agreed~ the seriously rich, for the most part, probably could care less about high end hi-fi in the sense of an 'aspirational' product; there are many more things that money can be spent on. But that's the dilemma for the high-end business. Hardcore hobbyists aren't necessarily billionaires. They may spend a lot more of their disposable income on hi-fi than the comparable person in their income class, but at some point, there's a squeeze: if you have to pay 30k for a speaker cable, 70k for a preamp, 200k for amps and a like or higher amount for speakers, the industry hits the wall. And I think it already has. If you define high end as 'no limit' either in design or price.
But, plenty of hobbyists can get high end sound that is as good or better without spending that kind of dough. I was heartened to hear how many people liked Sanders equipment, for example, which seems to be a relative bargain for top quality. Granted, maybe it doesn't have the last 2 or 5% of the 'aspirational' gear, but there are so many other things that make a difference in set up, room, etc., it's probably academic. (e.g. constant complaints that some killer kilo buck set up at a show sounded bad).

 

[puroagave]

pushing the auto analogy a little further, one can get a heck of a car for $35-$60k (BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, Lexus, etc), and a heck of a 2-channel system for about the same. Judging by the number of cars sold in that price range, that should be an affordable price range for a serious audiophile; just buy 2 new cars over 20 years instead of 3 or 4.

something like 75% of luxury cars in the US are leased. the difference is one can be written off as a tax deduction and the other requires cold hard cash. or you can finance your stereo with plastic - if thats the case then you really dont need a stereo system

 

[puroagave]

KKs view :

I dont see it that way at all , a lot of products brought out lately are merely the same or even worse stuff ,put in a shiny new box .
I stay far away of the endless powercord /cable game as well anyway.
For me the nicest products in high end were designed around the year 2000.
Seems to me that there is not much more progression to be made in analogue amplifier design , hence the " progress" is now tilted towards digital amplification.
And a well designed modern loudspeaker with good characteristics? well it is still driven by a magnet /voicecoil system which drives a membrane
Tubeamps? mostly old design in a new box.
Digital - big $$ no thank you , the worst price performance ratio i know of only bettered by cables .

Satisfying high end does cost a certain amount of money , but satisfaction doesnt lie in chasin the new product rat race, like KK suggested

KK is jaded and burnt out, he supposedly quit writing about audio sometime in 2000 when he says audio reached its zenith. i agree with him tho, most of the new sh!t out there is "old wine in new bottles" i was taken to task for making this statement in another thread, but he's right! i see theres lots of new 'philes coming into the fold that want to believe the latest magic this, dart that or solution this is some sort of pinnacle in engineering. given enough time in this hobby it think many of us will feel like KK.

 

[Andre Marc]

I wasn't at RMAF, But I understand that there was a forum hosted by KK that discussed Ken's theory of where the high-end is headed.
Apparently Ken believes that high-end is dying by its own hand; that if it is to continue to exist, let alone thrive, high-end audio has to emulate the example of the luxury watch, pen, and car industries by becoming aspirational and moving upmarket, abandoning the middle-class customers who no longer have the necessary disposable income to spend on audio.

I'm not sure that this is the correct theory, BUT it does seem to be an interesting one. IMO, there may be an off-set to Ken's theory, and that is that as the typical middle- class baby-boomer ( whom I suspect is the primary demographic of the current customer of high-end) may have more disposable income as they become empty nesters. Trouble is that the hobby will need to appeal to the younger generations to continue to survive into the future ( which at the moment I don't think it does)...or maybe Ken's theory is the answer...thoughts?

It is a very complicated issue. The high end needs to super rich to subsidize it, but that generation is getting older, and older, and older.

However, there are TONS of passionate young designers who are making great sounding products at very, very affordable price points.

Even established companies are making high value products these days.

If I am not mistaken, he also talked about how horrible the high end is at marketing and sales.

I have been to audio shows where the rooms were steaming hot, like a sauna...where there was NO greeting what so ever
from the person manning the room, where there was NO music playing..I have seen sour grumpy faces, etc.

Absurd. Many high end companies lack basic, basic sales skills, and for that matter, are headed up by engineers with
lousy personalities.

 

[flez007]

I heard a demo on multi-channel headphones at RMAF that amazed me. I see more young people listening to music than ever before, give them some time to earn some serious cash!

 

[caesar]

If I am not mistaken, he also talked about how horrible the high end is at marketing and sales.

I have been to audio shows where the rooms were steaming hot, like a sauna...where there was NO greeting what so ever
from the person manning the room, where there was NO music playing..I have seen sour grumpy faces, etc.

Absurd. Many high end companies lack basic, basic sales skills, and for that matter, are headed up by engineers with
lousy personalities.

So you want to add those functions to the cost structure and get the prices even higher?!?

Just kidding!

 

[DaveyF]

I heard a demo on multi-channel headphones at RMAF that amazed me. I see more young people listening to music than ever before, give them some time to earn some serious cash!

Yes, more young people are listening to music than ever before, BUT not on high-end systems. The continuing demise of the brick and mortar high end salon/store would seem to minimize the possibility of the younger generation being exposed to what a high-end system can do. You add in the cost, which is now many times more in relation to one's disposable income than when I started in the hobby and you have a MAJOR problem, at least IMHO.

 

[caesar]

Went out to dinner with family and friends after RMAF. One 30 year old told me he was "so over CD and wholly into vinyl". He listens on a $100 turntable. We were talking about the show, and I told him he could get an "audiophile table" for $400-$500 from Project or Clear Audio, etc. He told me it was too rich for him. Then we started ordering wine and he was pushing $140 bottles for our dinner...

High end audio is an experience. I am sure everyone here can remember their "first time". People can imagine what a home theater would be like in their home because they been to many movie theaters. But to hear a great, well set up high end system is a rarity. The key is to get people exposed to great sounding systems. Not all will be impressed but some will be gob-smacked, like we were at one point. Once hooked, it doesn't have to be expensive... at least at first, before you get on the bandwagon.

 

[Andre Marc]

Went out to dinner with family and friends after RMAF. One 30 year old told me he was "so over CD and wholly into vinyl". He listens on a $100 turntable. We were talking about the show, and I told him he could get an "audiophile table" for $400-$500 from Project or Clear Audio, etc. He told me it was too rich for him. Then we started ordering wine and he was pushing $140 bottles for our dinner...

High end audio is an experience. I am sure everyone here can remember their "first time". People can imagine what a home theater would be like in their home because they been to many movie theaters. But to hear a great, well set up high end system is a rarity. The key is to get people exposed to great sounding systems. Not all will be impressed but some will be gob-smacked, like we were at one point. Once hooked, it doesn't have to be expensive... at least at first, before you get on the bandwagon.

Excellent, excellent point. It is all about priorities.

I see people shocked at the prices of even budget gear, but don't think twice about dropping hundreds at a bar on Friday night, or several grand on window tints and wheels for their car etc,
or even a weekend in Vegas.

That to me is frivolous bullshit...audio products can be enjoyed daily and passed down. I have my father's reel to reel any other electronics.

It is ALL about priorities.