Tesla Model 3 | Tesla seeks $1.5 billion junk bonds issue to fund Model 3 production

[Mike Lavigne]

Why is EV technology not ready for the masses? Your laptop and cell-phone work all day on a LI battery. They charge at home. On the road, they can be charged at hotels.

Steve N.
Empirical Audio

the problem is that in 2017 cars with internal combustion engines are likely the most amazing things man has yet built when you consider how well they work and what it takes to buy one. and it's all about economies of scale and the precision of mass production. when you distribute development costs over 1 million plus cars over a model run you can do so many interesting things. and do that for 30+ years and you get very good at it.

this guy comes along and hand builds a few special cars that hit the cultural highs just right and he looks pretty smart. but......he has yet to attain the capacity to execute these other essential things. and he is playing with very expensive technology likely before it is mature. you cannot legislate technological progress. it's very expensive to build batteries with proper weight and range. and he is trying to get around that reality......and failing.

and all those companies that do know how to execute those efficiencies are now in the game. so his premium for his 'vibe' is evaporating, he has no dealers to push his cars, they have to be overall better buys or more special to be direct marketed.

not looking good all around, and so far his model 3 is not ready for prime time, he will only beta test it with his employees.

 

[adyc]

Musk is one true visionary. He has shown traditional car manufacturers how to build EV. Their battery technology is so advanced. Just look at Nissian Leaf. Butt ugly and poor range. Without Tesla, BMW, Porsche are never interested in producing EV. Now Volvo has also jumped in. One has to give this guy credit. I hope he can sort out Model 3 production issues soon.

 

[NorthStar]

Why Would Any Supplier Want To Work With Tesla? | Autos / #UnderTheHood | Forbes

 

[NorthStar]

Just one funny incident: https://www.autoblog.com/2017/11/03/tesla-model-3-spied-near-detroit-appears-to-be-dead/

By the way, my car (Acura) is covered of iced snow this morning; roughly an inch, from yesterday first downfall of the year, which is usually rare around this time but not exceptional. We don't really need car garages here on the Island.

 

[DaveC]

I am sick of hearing this. Tell me which car manufacturers don’t have customers complaints. My last car Porsche gave me more troubles than my Model S. Porsche pressure fuel pumps failed twice during high way driving. So dangerous!!

But it's true... Tesla won't give info to JD Power so they can do initial quality analysis. I'm not saying their cars are totally unreliable or falling apart but they seem to have a lot of minor issues and I'd also guess there's a lot of variable experiences as well with some cars doing much better than others.

If you want anecdotes, I've had ONE problem with my last 4 Subarus which was a <$10 part, all bought brand new since 2005 and sold around 60k mi except the 3rd one which was totaled at 30k. My parents have had a long list of Hondas without a single issue.

 

[DaveC]

I've lost count of the number of times in my computer career that I heard engineers make commitments to get things done in 1/2 the time that it will actually take, and managers that push them to commit to schedules that are even 20% shorter than that. It's the nature of the beast. Elon needs to get realistic with his predictions and expectations. He also needs to hire better people and pay them more. He should be stealing management from GM and Ford.

Steve N.
Empirical Audio

Yeah, I can't condemn him for it, it happens even to more experienced people, but we should learn from watching Scotty on Star Trek... When you're ignorant about your ignorance it's bound to happen and I've certainly done it before, recently even... turns out I was ignorant about marketing/branding and how much I'd have needed to spend, which required changing tactics and a speaker that has been ready to go for a long time now not being finished. Oh well, live and learn, that's why we're here I guess...

As far as the tech not being ready, it's simple... the upfront costs of EV + environmental impact of production + method of recharging. It's potentially worse vs a similar gas powered car just in terms of carbon emissions and the environmental impacts are far worse, including energy required to manufacture. Even if you save some carbon emissions during it's operating life the upfront costs might not make it worthwhile. In the case of the Tesla S and X, these are not economy cars and any thoughts you're saving the planet by purchasing one are in error. These are toys that have far greater environmental impact vs a smaller, lighter gas powered car. And it's not like I'm all smug driving around a Honda Fit, I have a Subaru STi that loves to suck down gas. It's still probably better for the planet vs a Tesla...

 

[NorthStar]

I think there is an overall balanced perspective between owning a car, our personal experience with few of them, and other's own personal experience. No two people use the same car the same way.
And there are other aspects to consider as well.

Electric cars are the future, there is no doubt about that, in my mind.

Here, the Tesla Model 3 is losing traction; on the production line, on the investors line, on the orders line, on the tax credit line, on the overall Elon Musk's goal line.

It is an informative article the one in Forbes; from the link in post #83 just above.

And I mostly disagree with DaveC just above; he will have to get some real hard facts to convince me that EV cars are no better than ICE cars for the environment and for the air people breathe around...a healthier lifestyle inside a healthier body and soul. ...Real scientific facts from the best scientists on that specific subject.
I am up to the challenge because I too can provide links to counteract his, under the most and best light possible from the top best scientific analyses. ...Evidence.

 

[Empirical Audio]

the problem is that in 2017 cars with internal combustion engines are likely the most amazing things man has yet built when you consider how well they work and what it takes to buy one. and it's all about economies of scale and the precision of mass production. when you distribute development costs over 1 million plus cars over a model run you can do so many interesting things. and do that for 30+ years and you get very good at it.

this guy comes along and hand builds a few special cars that hit the cultural highs just right and he looks pretty smart. but......he has yet to attain the capacity to execute these other essential things. and he is playing with very expensive technology likely before it is mature. you cannot legislate technological progress. it's very expensive to build batteries with proper weight and range. and he is trying to get around that reality......and failing.

and all those companies that do know how to execute those efficiencies are now in the game. so his premium for his 'vibe' is evaporating, he has no dealers to push his cars, they have to be overall better buys or more special to be direct marketed.

not looking good all around, and so far his model 3 is not ready for prime time, he will only beta test it with his employees.

Sorry, but Elon's problem is a manufacturing scale and efficiency problem, with some minor quality hurdles. The products are solid and ready for the mass-market. The long-range infrastructure is in place. The local charging options are available. I don't just drive my Tesla for fun, it's my only car now, and much more advanced than even the most advanced gas cars. I travel locally every week and made two trips to CA this year in it without a hitch. Pure pleasure to drive. You don't know what your missing.

Steve N.
Empirical Audio

 

[Empirical Audio]

It's potentially worse vs a similar gas powered car just in terms of carbon emissions and the environmental impacts are far worse, including energy required to manufacture. Even if you save some carbon emissions during it's operating life the upfront costs might not make it worthwhile. In the case of the Tesla S and X, these are not economy cars and any thoughts you're saving the planet by purchasing one are in error.

Potentially worse, sure, but that is only short-sighted.

The goal of purchasing the Model S or X versus a gas guzzler Mercedes or Porsche is a real win. The equivalent gas mileage of my S beats a Prius and this is a 5000 lb luxury car. And, the fact that I purchased one provides cash to build-up the battery factory and the nationwide charging infrastructure. It is especially beneficial to own an EV where I live because it's 97% renewable here. There are more renewable power systems in this country that you are evidently aware of. Not just in CA either. There are even cities in Texas that are almost 100% renewable. The entire island of Kodiak and villages of Unalakleet, Gambell, Savoonga, Nome, Wales, Shaktoolik, Emmonak, Chevak in Alaska all have renewable energy or depend mostly on it.

Steve N.
Empirical Audio

 

[NorthStar]

Steve, I trust your first-hand experience. If MikeL has an equivalent driving experience with a Tesla car I would also consider my trust in him. I don't think he has that, but on Honda cars he's the car dealer; on that I can learn more from him.

DaveC, I have no idea what he's driving*.

I want a Tesla, an affordable one, a Roadster?
I'll buy more Tesla stocks when it hit rock bottom.

* Correction, and my very bad; Dave is driving a Subaru model STi.

 

[DaveC]

And I mostly disagree with DaveC just above; he will have to get some real hard facts to convince me that EV cars are no better than ICE cars for the environment and for the air people breathe around...a healthier lifestyle inside a healthier body and soul. ...Real scientific facts from the best scientists on that specific subject.
I am up to the challenge because I too can provide links to counteract his, under the most and best light possible from the top best scientific analyses. ...Evidence.

I posted a few things in another thread, but I'd encourage you to do your own research and look at the entire life cycle of the product in terms of EROEI, or EROI, Energy Return on (Energy) Invested.

Basically, an EV is only a good idea where it can be charged without using fossil fuels or sometimes at night in areas where there is surplus capacity. This advantage is offset to some degree by environmental impacts of the mining and manufacture of batteries and motors, which is significant. In areas where coal is used for power an EV might actually pollute more than an ICE in all ways including CO2 emissions.

However, like most tech it will advance quickly and with improvements in batteries and power generation EVs are certainly going to replace ICE, and this will happen relatively quickly. Look at wind power, it's repaying it's self in under a year by now with EROEI approaching 50:1(!!!). Long ago it sucked and killed lots of birds. It's still not perfect but it's 1000x better vs a few decades ago. In most cases it's more profitable to replace 10 y/o turbines with new ones even though the old ones have ~20 years of service life left.

The issues I have with current EVs are

- Subsidized Tesla model S/X. IMO subsidizing a 5000 lb 6-figure car is ridiculous.

- Outright lies used to promote the tech.

- Environmental impacts of lithium and rare earth mining and manufacturing.

- Upfront costs and energy invested to manufacture is much higher vs traditional car.

- Recharging an EV using fossil fuel derived electricity. This is less efficient vs burning the fossil fuel in an ICE. It's like electric baseboard heating systems (but not as bad), you spend much more than simply burning gas and more fossil fuels are burned to accomplish the goal.


I stated in my last post I drive a Subaru STi, MY16. It uses more gas than it should....

 

[NorthStar]

Ah, Subaru: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subaru
• https://www.torquenews.com/1084/subaru-ranks-2-america-best-made-car-brand-who-s-1

? http://www.greencarreports.com/news...ll-electric-versions-of-existing-model-lineup

 

[Mike Lavigne]

Sorry, but Elon's problem is a manufacturing scale and efficiency problem, with some minor quality hurdles. The products are solid and ready for the mass-market. The long-range infrastructure is in place. The local charging options are available. I don't just drive my Tesla for fun, it's my only car now, and much more advanced than even the most advanced gas cars. I travel locally every week and made two trips to CA this year in it without a hitch. Pure pleasure to drive. You don't know what your missing.

Steve N.
Empirical Audio

did you even read what I wrote?

no quibble with the product. but the whole enchilada is exactly what I wrote.....and.....what you wrote. and it could be fatal. manufacturing eats cash like crazy, and if it's not coming in, that's called BK.

but Elon's problem is a manufacturing scale and efficiency problem

your enjoyment of the car is besides the point. but i'm happy that you are happy.

it's like building a hifi product but selling it below cost. your customers love you, and then they are stuck. running an actual business is always the hard part. can Musk do it? there is no evidence he can, but stranger things have happened.

 

[adyc]

If you want anecdotes, I've had ONE problem with my last 4 Subarus which was a <$10 part, all bought brand new since 2005 and sold around 60k mi except the 3rd one which was totaled at 30k. My parents have had a long list of Hondas without a single issue.

Yes, Japanese cars are very reliable. But not German cars despite what they said or claimed. Maybe they are not adaptable to Asian tropical weather.

 

[Empirical Audio]

did you even read what I wrote?

no quibble with the product. but the whole enchilada is exactly what I wrote.....and.....what you wrote. and it could be fatal. manufacturing eats cash like crazy, and if it's not coming in, that's called BK.



your enjoyment of the car is besides the point. but i'm happy that you are happy.

it's like building a hifi product but selling it below cost. your customers love you, and then they are stuck. running an actual business is always the hard part. can Musk do it? there is no evidence he can, but stranger things have happened.

Many years of red ink for Amazon didn't end too badly.

Steve N.
Empirical Audio

 

[NorthStar]

Amazon CEO, the richest man on the planet.

 

[NorthStar]

According to some pro car analysts; Elon Musk won't be able to fulfill the half million orders for the Tesla Model 3 in the year 2018...perhaps 100,000 of them.

* Oups.

 

[DaveC]

Yes, Japanese cars are very reliable. But not German cars despite what they said or claimed. Maybe they are not adaptable to Asian tropical weather.

It's been going downhill for the Germans since BMW's i-drive thing introduced in the mid 2000s, my friend has an '03 540 which is one of the last good German cars imo.

Japanese cars have become boring though, the Subaru STi is one of the last real Japanese sports cars. Under 80 mph and on snow or dirt roads it's amazing but not fun in traffic or highway. I can put a new engine in it for the price of a clutch on a Porsche....

 

[NorthStar]

Latest:

• https://jalopnik.com/tesla-shipped-cars-without-seats-and-digital-displays-1820113207

• https://www.inc.com/justin-bariso/e...orts-that-tesla-fired-2-of-its-workforce.html
____

Extra:

• http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-marine-raiders-secret-speech-2017-11
• https://lifehacker.com/the-most-reliable-new-cars-on-the-market-right-now-1820117608

 

[NorthStar]

Serious news: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...-continues-director-battery-engineering-quits
___

Extra: https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/0...ys-yes-episode-46-local-energy-rules-podcast/