Bitcoin

[DaveC]

If you try to find out why...

... a squad of pro-btc goons from the CCP will come for you?
... the sheer majesty of Satoshi's code will drive you mad?
... you'll find out the movie "Minority Report" is real as you're being charged?

 

[Folsom]

User211 is correct that btc is vulnerable and it's just a matter of time. This is my father's opinion anyways... It WILL be hacked. When, who knows, it just depends on technology. All it'll take is a quantum leap in computing power, and looking at history it might come sooner than later. My Dad was in charge of computer security for Sandia Labs and gave advise to the DoD before his retirement.

As far as it being a store of value like gold, I'd agree except gold has some inherent value and is used to plate our connectors. BTC is worth what people agree... Kinda like fiat come to think of it... And once again, Americans should support the USD as it's in our own best interest. BTC is in nobody's best interest except the speculators and miners and those who use it for nefarious purposes. I'd argue it's harmful to the US dollar, and maybe that's exactly the point. Much of the US population has been brainwashed to think stuff like "shitty fiat", so here we are valuing alternatives that have no real value as a hedge against our own fears and negative fantasies about the future of the USD and the US government.

What is your suggestion? Should we start burning US dollars? make my US dollar holdings deflationary?

How do I personally make my US dollars deflationary, or even just not inflationary?

 

[DaveC]

Thank you for your post.

Please do not rope in any discussion about politics or the U.S. Government.

I interpret Boomer skepticism about Bitcoin as bullish for Bitcoin.

Ron, it's true skepticism of governments and fiat currency is a main driver of crypto adaption. It's been said many times and it's not delving into debating monetary policy. IMO it's far too close to the subject to not be allowed to at least say it. Also, it's not fair for you to make the judgement because you obviously see things differently than I do, don't like what I say, and are showing bias as a result, imo.

I guess one of the world's experts on supercomputers and computer security has no relevance because he's a boomer. That's hilarious!

Also, User211 said nearly exactly the same thing as my Dad, which is why I mentioned it.

 

[DaveC]

What is your suggestion? Should we start burning US dollars? make my US dollar holdings deflationary?

How do I personally make my US dollars deflationary, or even just not inflationary?

Somehow it doesn't surprise me in the least you'd ask this question.

My suggestion is to provide value to the world.

 

[Folsom]

Somehow it doesn't surprise me in the least you'd ask this question.

My suggestion is to provide value to the world.

Sooo invade more oil rich countries? Force other countries to use USD so it becomes in short supply? Even if we increased our GDP a lot I don't see how it'd make a big difference given the sheer volume of USD.

Sorry I'm not seeing a way to have a savings account that works for me by increasing the value of the USD.

If you said make healthier small businesses in the US, well I'm 100% about that but I don't see it helping a store of value problem. And I'm not necessarily interested in going back to gold. Frankly I see a system of inflationary and deflationary money being the strongest.

 

[DaveC]

Hey bonzo, I'm heading out... about to get my shoes on. Mind sending me a link with tying instructions? TIA!

 

[bonzo75]

Hey bonzo, I'm heading out... about to get my shoes on. Mind sending me a link with tying instructions? TIA!

To tie your laces, imagine you are bending over with the fiat behind you

 

[DaveC]

To tie your laces, imagine you are bending over with the fiat behind you

Go on...

 

[the sound of Tao]

Go on...

Maybe it’s not the fiat that we should worry about... but more just who is behind the wheel

 

[Barry2013]

All the crypto currencies strike me as inherently vulnerable to a loss of confidence as there do not appear to be any very credible supporting assets.
How governments would react to a loss of confidence in them is unclear. The only credible justification that they and the global financial system would have to save them would be to avoid even more serious and dangerous consequences. But the costs of that would be huge and I doubt that voters would be sympathetic to bailing out crypto currency holders who most would view t as greedy speculators and crooks.
Established and traditional currencies are much more susceptible to government and international controls and I am sure governments generally would not want to see those powers eroded futher by the continued growth of crypto currencies.
International economic and banking history is not short of huge economic bubbles that have burst with massive adverse consequences. Often with very little obvious advance warning.

 

[Ron Resnick]

All the crypto currencies strike me as inherently vulnerable to a loss of confidence as there do not appear to be any very credible supporting assets.
How governments would react to a loss of confidence in them is unclear. . . .

I, personally, divide cryptocurrencies into Bitcoin and everything else (i.e., all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin).

I think governments would react to a loss of confidence in Bitcoin with cheer and glee and relief.

Governments have shown that they will bail irresponsible market participants and irresponsible borrowers out of all kinds of assets and liabilities, but I am confident that governments would not bail out holders of cryptocurrencies who lose money on them.

Barry, which asset do you think is more vulnerable to a widespread loss of confidence, the Euro or Bitcoin?

 

[DaveC]

I think governments would react to a loss of confidence in Bitcoin with cheer and glee and relief.

I think some governments would be dismayed. Any idea which ones?

 

[bonzo75]

Sure Barry there is a less confidence and distrust about crypto but that is because it is at an early stage. Most people don't follow blockchain nor crypto markets or companies.

They are quite fine with the fact that the stock market has doubled in the worst economic times and that big banks have been fined for money laundering.

The confidence in crypto is a rising trend and will change over the next ten years

 

[Barry2013]

I, personally, divide cryptocurrencies into Bitcoin and everything else (i.e., all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin).

I think governments would react to a loss of confidence in Bitcoin with cheer and glee and relief.

Governments have shown that they will bail irresponsible market participants and irresponsible borrowers out of all kinds of assets and liabilities, but I am confident that governments would not bail out holders of cryptocurrencies who lose money on them.

Barry, which asset do you think is more vulnerable to a widespread loss of confidence, the Euro or Bitcoin?

Thanks Ron.
That is an interesting question!
The Eurozone undoubtedly has its problems and next year's French presidential election uncertainties don't help.
Any major loss of confidence in the Euro is only likely in the event of the EU hitting very big political problems, far bigger than anything we have seen to date. That is possible but IMHO very unlikely.
Bitcoin on the other hand seems more subject to all sorts of random known unknowns and unknown unknowns that render it more vulnerable.
The safest store of value still seems to be the old favourite which,of course, is gold

 

[Ron Resnick]

Thanks Ron.
That is an interesting question!
The Eurozone undoubtedly has its problems and next year's French presidential election uncertainties don't help.
Any major loss of confidence in the Euro is only likely in the event of the EU hitting very big political problems, far bigger than anything we have seen to date. That is possible but IMHO very unlikely.
Bitcoin on the other hand seems more subject to all sorts of random known unknowns and unknown unknowns that render it more vulnerable.
The safest store of value still seems to be the old favourite which,of course, is gold

Thank you, Barry.

I, too, am more concerned about the possibility of unknown unknowns with Bitcoin than I am with the Euro. Disturbingly to me, in response to this direct question, some of the Bitcoin maximalists (who claim to have made Bitcoin their primary or their sole long term investment asset) deny the possibility of unknown unknowns with Bitcoin -- which I find baldly illogical.

I do believe that Bitcoin is usurping some of gold's safe haven/store of value investment thesis.

 

[DaveC]

Latest big drop a result of:

"The drop appears to coincide with reports that the US Treasury is planning to tackle financial institutions for money laundering carried out through digital assets."

Bitcoin and crypto markets crash on US crackdown reports

The drop appears to coincide with reports that the US Treasury is planning to tackle financial institutions for money laundering carried out through digital assets.

finance.yahoo.com

Lol...

 

[Ron Resnick]

If that unverified rumor is true, then it is good for cryptocurrencies. The enforcement of AML ultimately is good for any asset.

People always try to divine (make up) the ex post reason for price drops of any asset.

Bitcoin gets cheaper to buy as its price declines. Better to buy at $50,000 or at $55,000 than at $65,000.

 

[KeithR]

This post stopped me in my tracks. KeithR is an investment professional and I am not, so I have to weight his opinions heavier than I weight my own opinions. His opinions give me pause.

I think Bitcoin is a store of value.

I think Bitcoin is a hedge on the unlimited printing of fiat currency.

I think institutional acceptance and adoption of Bitcoin as an investment and as an asset class in broadening.

Bitcoin maximalists assert that Bitcoin is going to US$500,000 and then to US$1 million over many years. My personal investment thesis is far more modest. I believe Bitcoin is a competitor to gold. I think this is one reason the price of gold has stalled in the face of unprecedented printing of US dollars.

Right now BTC is about 10% of the market capitalization of gold. I think it is very reasonable to assume that BTC will get to at least 20% or 30% of the market capitalization of gold in the next few years. That would suggest that BTC doubles or triples in price from here. And that is before we even consider any use of BTC as a currency or as a token of commerce.

In the first three months of this year, it became clear to me that Bitcoin will now become a standard part of almost every investment adviser's and money manager's asset allocation pie chart showing allocations to stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities. My personal view is that BTC will not go below the January low of $32,000, which was the beginning of the "a-ha moment" for the institutional investment world.

I think there now are institutional and high net worth investors all over the world looking to buy significant BTC dips to establish initial investments and to increase their exposure to BTC. I think this is why the dips since the Morgan Stanley announcement have been shallow compared to BTC's prior dips.

Finally, I believe that a "Minsky Moment" favors literally only BTC and gold.

I used to think in the traditional investment terms of buying Bitcoin, hoping it goes up, and selling it at a profit. I thought of Bitcoin as the means to make a profit. Now I think of Bitcoin as the end. Now I hope my other investments go up so I can sell them and buy more Bitcoin. I am never selling Bitcoin again.

But KeithR is the investment professional, and I am not. Keith is more successful in the difficult field of investing than I am.

It will be fascinating to see who proves to be more correct over the years.

Thank you, but I'm a fixed income investment professional not an equity or commodity one. Most of the same arguments could have been made in 2005-2008 to the commodity space based on new, insatiable Chinese demand. Every investment advisor was allocating 5-10% of portfolios to them. How did that play out?

Gold and BTC really don't trade the same at all. Gold will always have value in my closet (and I can take it to 10 places to cash in), doesn't have 5-10% daily gyrations that certainly can't be considered a cash alternative, and has a sticky investor base. Gold barely went down in March 2020 while BTC fell a ton. I purchased BTC last summer as other asset classes had run and I figured it would catch up at some point.

But really BTC is just a commodity and all commodities trade based on a chart - and that chart has gone parabolic and has nothing but air underneath. All the HFs are in now - they are front running the "institutions" you talk about. I find it amusing that a 28% drawdown is considered "shallow."

Betting on the Minsky moment has been a poor investment strategy. In fact, if you invested in the S&P 500 you'd have done better. Levering portfolios up at today's BTC prices seems foolish but who knows what may happens. Markets be markets!

 

[DaveC]

If that unverified rumor is true, then it is good for cryptocurrencies. The enforcement of AML ultimately is good for any asset.

Lol... The point is this: What does a ~20% drop in value of btc mean when the cause of the drop is an announcement that there will be a crackdown on money laundering?

You also ignored me when I asked which countries would be dismayed if btc was no more.

I think you know btc is a refuge of criminals, and participating in btc is supporting criminals, criminal regimes and enemies of the United States. I am also sure you are doing your best Ostridge impression to avoid having to think about it too much. As are so many people... when faced with undeniable facts that are uncomfortable to process, we often simply ignore them or come up with excuses for them, especially when money is involved.

 

[Vienna]

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