Will "The Donald" Announce He Is A Candidate

[Steve Williams]

How Donald Trump got here


From AT&T News

Donald Trump may have no political experience, no real campaign, and no firm grasp of the 2012 campaign scene. So why has the real estate magnate climbed to the top of early presidential polls?

Trump wasn't even a major part of the 2012 discussion until this February when gay rights Republican group GOProud invited Trump to speak at this year's annual Conservative Political Action Conference as a way to shake things up.

But now he's a regular staple of the national news media diet, he's topping national and even state polls of the presidential race, and major political strategists are recognizing him as a serious candidate.

So how did he get here? Below, we take a look at who Trump has to thank for his early surge:

His potential competitors It may not have been their direct intention, but by hanging back in the presidential race, all the potential GOP candidates are creating a hole for an early frontrunner. And guess who's ready and willing to fill it? Trump is the candidate who has been on the national media circuit, granting interviews with all the major cable shows, radio programs, and collecting media attention. Of course, the media is also looking to fill that frontrunner hole, which brings us to our next point.

The media In a 24-7 news cycle, Trump is ready and available to make news. Whether questioning the president's birthplace or insulting his potential competition, Trump's no-holds-barred style makes him a ripe candidate for extensive cable coverage. And as producers and correspondents scrounge for any morsel of news about the 2012 race, they understand that Trump is delivering material on a daily basis.

Polls Regardless of whether politicians are taking Trump seriously, his name is on the lips of Americans, including those who are taking part in early polls. Trump now regularly places in the top three in national polls and has begun cracking the top tier in some state-level surveys as well. Of course, there's a vicious--or for Trump, at least, a virtuous--circle effect in play here: As his poll numbers climb, the media gives him the attention befitting a serious candidate--which, in turn, helps his poll numbers to climb further. But early polls aren't exactly the best barometer at this early stage in the race. This far out from 2012, any poll is mostly a test of name recognition and with Trump blanketing the news and being a reality show celebrity, it's no wonder he's surging in these early contests.

The Donald brand Trump knows what he's doing. The New York mogul who made himself star of his own reality show is nothing if not a master of self-marketing. That's one reason why he's surging in the polls. The question remains whether Trump is really resonating with people--or if early poll respondents are reacting positively to the established Trump brand. Conservatives at CPAC in February raved about Trump's criticism of America's reputation in the world, and responded favorably to his penchant for telling it like it is. Meanwhile polls continue to turn up that many Republican voters also doubt Obama's birthplace--an outlier issue that has allowed Trump to pick up additional traction within the GOP base by positioning himself as a heroic truth-teller with the courage to challenge a vast liberal-media conspiracy to conceal the true circumstances of Obama's birth. (The president is a U.S. citizen, born in Hawaii.)

All four of these factors are mutually reinforcing. The absence of a frontrunner is feeding media interest in Trump, which is boosting Trump's poll numbers, for example. Seem silly?

 

[RogerD]

The ruins that use to be the "new Rome" are strewn with our wanna be miracle leaders, Reagan,the Terminator,and now the the Donald, God help us all. I voted for Perot back when he ran and later when his family was threatened he pulled out. I haven't seen anybody so far with the balls or understanding of what really needs to happen to put this country back on track. Maybe we should look for a tough prosecutor with plenty of handcuffs that loves the "perp" walk. Is there any out there that can't be bought off?

Sorry for the rant.

 

[es347]

Not that my opinion is worth the pixels with which to express it but someone mentioned Mitch Daniels. As a resident of the state he governs I can tell you that he is the anti-Obama when it comes to just about everything possible. He has minimal charisma, a wry sense of humor and is tighter than the bark on a tree. He is a doer, not a talker and as bright as Obama is purported to be, Mitch is at the very least his equal. Prior to being elected governor he was vice president of marketing for the company I retired from and we all used to eagerly await his monthly voice mail updates which he did as a perfect Tom Bodett. He could be the guy to pull us back from the brink.

 

[Steve Williams]

Donald Trump dives in poll of GOP voters




By Michael Muskal
Los Angeles Times
May 10, 2011, 10:28 a.m.
That string of sibilants you hear is the air rapidly leaking out of the presidential balloon that kept Donald Trump floating above the political confusion that has marked the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

According to the latest poll by Public Policy Polling, Trump, the not-so-bashful candidate in waiting, has had one of the quickest rises — and now falls — in presidential politics. The Democratic polling company once had Trump leading the more than a dozen possible GOP contenders with 26%, but now the reality show host and businessman is down to 8%, in a tie for fifth place with Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

Booms and boomlets for presidential aspirants are as much of the political system as testing the waters and floating trial balloons. Harold Stassen became a dogged perennial candidate even though his support was increasingly cultish. On the Democratic side, Bruce Babbitt came and went after a flurry of media attention. Neither hopeful was alone or unique.

In just this cycle, Rep. Mike Pence bounced up in the presidential sweepstakes, but soon bounced out to a much safer run for Indiana governor. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, the insider’s insider, puffed up and dropped out.

Even Gen. David Petraeus, was bruited about as a possible candidate until just before President Obama nominated him for head of the Central Intelligence Agency. The military commander follows in the footsteps of Gen. Colin Powell, who was also mentioned as presidential timber.

According to PPP, Trump seems to have ridden the "birther" issue up in the polls then down after the White House released Obama's long-form birth certificate, proving yet again that he was indeed born in Hawaii. Trump claimed credit for getting the release, but that doesn’t seem to have swayed GOP voters. Only 34% of them said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 53% said they viewed him in a negative light, according to the poll.

The poll is based on a sample of 610 usual primary voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Like many of the possible GOP contenders, Trump has not made a formal declaration on whether he will really run.

The poll found that former Govs. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee were opening some daylight between themselves and the rest of the GOP pack. But the level of support changes depending on which candidates drop out of the running. In short, the GOP race remains a jigsaw puzzle with too many pieces.

 

[Phelonious Ponk]

Not that my opinion is worth the pixels with which to express it but someone mentioned Mitch Daniels. As a resident of the state he governs I can tell you that he is the anti-Obama when it comes to just about everything possible. He has minimal charisma, a wry sense of humor and is tighter than the bark on a tree. He is a doer, not a talker and as bright as Obama is purported to be, Mitch is at the very least his equal. Prior to being elected governor he was vice president of marketing for the company I retired from and we all used to eagerly await his monthly voice mail updates which he did as a perfect Tom Bodett. He could be the guy to pull us back from the brink.

I don't think any president can fix our dysfunctional system. Two major parties in the old center/left vs center/right model, where they are close enough to work together and actually get something done might do the trick, but I'm not holding my breath in an environment that is so polarized that candidates have to appeal to the lunatic fringe to win a primary, spend the general campaign denying everything they said up to that point to win the center, then govern, not for the good of the country but for the good of repositioning the opposition as unelectable in time for the next cycle.

Democracy is messy.

Tim

 

[rblnr]

I don't think any president can fix our dysfunctional system. Two major parties in the old center/left vs center/right model, where they are close enough to work together and actually get something done might do the trick, but I'm not holding my breath in an environment that is so polarized that candidates have to appeal to the lunatic fringe to win a primary, spend the general campaign denying everything they said up to that point to win the center, then govern, not for the good of the country but for the good of repositioning the opposition as unelectable in time for the next cycle.

Wish I could disagree with the above assessment! I'd add that without any serious campaign finance reform and advertising regulations, the amount of $$ flowing thru Congress and on the airwaves precludes serious debate. We're in critical need of pragmatic not dogmatic problem-solving now, but it seems impossible in the present environment.

I think our system is moves a bit like a huge ocean liner -- so much internal inertia that the president can only move it a few degrees this way or that.

Problem too is that any candidate willing to truly level with people doesn't stand a chance -- we need to grow up as a nation.

 

[Steve Williams]

The Donald Says No

Trump says no to presidential run

By DAVID BAUDER and BETH FOUHY, Associated Press – 6 mins ago
NEW YORK – After months of flirting with politics, Donald Trump said Monday he won't run for president, choosing to stick with hosting "The Celebrity Apprentice" over a bid for the Republican nomination.
The reality TV star and real estate mogul made his announcement at a Manhattan hotel as NBC, which airs his show, rolled out its fall lineup.
"I will not be running for president as much as I'd like to," Trump said.
Trump's office released a formal statement just as he was taking the stage. In it, a confident Trump said he felt he could win the Republican primary and beat President Barack Obama in the general election but had come to realize a presidential campaign could not be run half-heartedly.
"Ultimately, business is my greatest passion and I am not ready to leave the private sector," Trump said.
Several Republicans are seeking the nomination in a race that lacks a clear front-runner. Among the top hopefuls are former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. The GOP is still waiting to hear whether Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin or Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann will get in the race.
Trump has floated the idea of a presidential candidacy in both 1988 and 2000 but claimed he was more serious than ever this time, citing the weak economy and the sense that the United States was in decline. Some public opinion polls showed him leading the slow-to-coalesce Republican field.
In the past few months, he delivered speeches to national GOP groups and traveled to early primary states like New Hampshire and Nevada. During that time, he reignited the so-called "birther" controversy by perpetuating falsehoods about Obama's birth place, insisting that questions were unanswered about whether the president was born in Hawaii. He amassed admiration from many on the far right who have insisted Obama was born overseas and, thus, wasn't eligible to serve as president.
Obama finally distributed his long-form birth certificate earlier this month, indirectly casting Trump as a carnival barker and the controversy as a sideshow. Trump took credit for the release even though it robbed his candidacy of its signature issue.
Obama retaliated days later in his monologue at the White House Correspondents Association dinner, where he poked fun at the birth certificate controversy and mocked Trump and his television show. A stone-faced Trump heard the barbs from both Obama and comedian Seth Meyers. A day later, NBC interrupted the airing of Trump's show with word of an Obama announcement — within 45 minutes the president informed the nation and the world that al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden had been killed.
Whatever buzz over a Trump candidacy was left fully faded.
Trump would have brought to the race both celebrity and the no-holds-barred criticism of Obama that many Republicans are hungry for in a GOP nominee. But, as it has for months, Trump's participation also could have made the GOP nomination fight a less serious affair, seeming small by comparison to Obama and his presidency.
Trump is the second Republican in a matter of days to say no to a bid for the GOP nomination. Mike Huckabee announced Saturday that he wouldn't seek the presidency.
At the Hilton hotel in New York, NBC said that "The Celebrity Apprentice" would be coming back in midseason. But Bob Greenblatt, the head of NBC entertainment, said the only mystery would be whether Trump was host.
Trump said the show has made a lot of money for charity and that he wanted to continue as host.

 

[Phelonious Ponk]

Wish I could disagree with the above assessment! I'd add that without any serious campaign finance reform and advertising regulations, the amount of $$ flowing thru Congress and on the airwaves precludes serious debate. We're in critical need of pragmatic not dogmatic problem-solving now, but it seems impossible in the present environment.

I think our system is moves a bit like a huge ocean liner -- so much internal inertia that the president can only move it a few degrees this way or that.

Problem too is that any candidate willing to truly level with people doesn't stand a chance -- we need to grow up as a nation.

You've hit a key point. One thing, I think, would solve many problems: The complete removal of private money from politics...Public financing of campaigns and a draconian enforcement of a law that defines a public official's acceptance of anything -- contributions, plane rides, cocktails, anything -- worth more than a couple of bucks as bribery. There would be an awful lot of real estate available on K Street, but we'd recover from that.

This, however, isn't going to happen unless there is such a public demand for it that the people who benefit from the current system fear a backlash that would remove them from influence if not threaten their lives. Democracy is messy.

Tim