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Odds to Win 2018-19 NBA Championship: Warriors Have Huge Odds Edge vs Raptors
The NBA Finals matchup is set and the two teams to make it to the summit of the mountaintop are the Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors. This will be the first Finals appearance for the Raptors in their franchise history while the Warriors are taking their shot at greatness by attempting to win their third title in a row and fourth in five years.
Online sportsbook Bovada has the Warriors as -280 favorites to win the NBA title while the Raptors come back at +230. With the series opener in Toronto on Thursday, the Warriors have opened as slight 1-point favorites to take Game 1, which seems like a huge discrepancy compared to Golden State’s series price.
Let’s dive into some narratives that could influence this series:
When Will Kevin Durant Return?
This will be a hot topic until he suits up for the Warriors again and the steam on this will only increase if the Raptors jump out to an early series lead. Durant’s calf injury seemed minor when it happened vs the Rockets in the second round but head coach Steve Kerr has confirmed that the injury was worse than initially anticipated, which is why he missed the entire Western Conference final vs the Blazers.
Durant’s future with the Warriors could very well be dictated based on how this series goes. Some in the media would say he’s already gone due to the infighting and turmoil between him and Draymond Green while GM Bob Myers has made it well known that the Warriors are intent on re-signing Durant.
This is likely one of the key reasons why sportsbooks have the series price with the Warriors at -280 despite not having home-court advantage. The expected return of Durant (a top-three player) could easily swing this series if the Raptors take an early lead and I expect him back by Game 3 at Oracle Arena.
Kawhi Leonard Is On a Historic Postseason Run
While some will contend that Durant or Stephen Curry is the best player in the NBA playoffs, that distinction belongs right now to Kawhi Leonard. The Klaw is averaging 31.2 points per game in the postseason and is shooting 50.7 percent from the floor. Raptors president Masai Ujiri looks like a genius for trading away fan favorite DeMar DeRozan to nab Kawhi and he rewarded that gamble by pushing the Raptors to the NBA Finals.
Most NBA fans and bettors will remember in Game 1 in the 2017 Western Conference final when the Spurs were up double digits on the Warriors at Oracle Arena in Game 1 with Kawhi leading the way. Although he got hurt and the Spurs eventually lost, Kawhi has historically played the Dubs tough. In his last 10 games vs the Warriors, he’s averaged 23.2 points per game and scored 20 or more in seven of those contests. If he can continue his torrid scoring pace while spearheading the Raptors’ terrific half-court defense, Toronto could very well win the title.
Raptors’ Bench vs Warriors’ Bench
This may be the edge where the Raptors can exploit the Warriors, who usually overwhelm teams with their high-end starting talent. Toronto got huge contributions from the likes of Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka and Norm Powell in the Eastern Conference final and the Raptors would need a full team effort if they want to take down the Dubs, even without Kevin Durant.
Usually, when the Warriors start to falter (which is rare), it’s because the supporting cast can’t match up. So, reserves like Alfonzo McKinnie, Jordan Bell and Quinn Cook could almost be unplayable when playing the Raps, which means there will be more emphasis on the Warriors playing their all-stars 40-plus minutes in each game. It’s been a winning formula so you can’t knock Golden State’s hustle but when trying to find an edge for either team, this stands out greatly.
