Bitcoin

Pb Blimp

Well-Known Member
Oct 30, 2017
518
25
140
USA
Warning: I am short bitcoin.

Think of these oscillations as a shepherd slowly herding the remaining sheep in a meadow into the corral to be slaughtered. Each oscillation upwards builds confidence to the next unsuspecting lamb and each correction represents the death of another corral full at the hands of the shepherd to the benefit of the farm owner pulling all the strings.

Investments are all the same. Whether you are talking about pork bellies, real estate, bonds or equities, be they public or private. The value in the long run all comes down to the Net Present Value of all future cash flows generated by the investment discounted at its cost of capital. It's not that complicated and it the same for everything. When fundamental economic analysis shows the NPV of such investment to be above the current market price one should buy and when NPV is below the market price one should sell. In the short run (sometimes years in thin markets lacking good information), emotion can cause investors to make decisions fully void of such fundamentals. Typically these occasions occur when the economic fundamentals are ambiguous and sensationalism provides a window for certain actors to arbitrage the condition of ignorance. In my experience I have never observed a combination of fundamental ambiguity, emotion, sensationalism, and arbitrage to this degree. The outcome is a wealth transfer from the misinformed to such actors like our society has rarely seen. The oscillations will continue until the last sheep is finally led to the gallow by the last surge upwards and then...........
 

edorr

WBF Founding Member
May 10, 2010
3,139
14
36
Smyrna, GA
Warning: I am short bitcoin.

Think of these oscillations as a shepherd slowly herding the remaining sheep in a meadow into the corral to be slaughtered. Each oscillation upwards builds confidence to the next unsuspecting lamb and each correction represents the death of another corral full at the hands of the shepherd to the benefit of the farm owner pulling all the strings.

Investments are all the same. Whether you are talking about pork bellies, real estate, bonds or equities, be they public or private. The value in the long run all comes down to the Net Present Value of all future cash flows generated by the investment discounted at its cost of capital. It's not that complicated and it the same for everything. When fundamental economic analysis shows the NPV of such investment to be above the current market price one should buy and when NPV is below the market price one should sell. In the short run (sometimes years in thin markets lacking good information), emotion can cause investors to make decisions fully void of such fundamentals. Typically these occasions occur when the economic fundamentals are ambiguous and sensationalism provides a window for certain actors to arbitrage the condition of ignorance. In my experience I have never observed a combination of fundamental ambiguity, emotion, sensationalism, and arbitrage to this degree. The outcome is a wealth transfer from the misinformed to such actors like our society has rarely seen. The oscillations will continue until the last sheep is finally led to the gallow by the last surge upwards and then...........

How does you NPV theory apply to say gold? What is the future cash flow generated by a bar of gold sitting in a banksafe? How about classic paintings? Where are the fundamentals here?
 

Pb Blimp

Well-Known Member
Oct 30, 2017
518
25
140
USA
How does you NPV theory apply to say gold? What is the future cash flow generated by a bar of gold sitting in a banksafe? How about classic paintings? Where are the fundamentals here?

Assets that bring utility to humans over the long term have historically been able to extract value in exchange for their ownership. This value is a function of the supply of the asset, the demand for the asset, and the resulting utility derived by the humans, amongst other things including financial variables like inflation and capital costs. This value over time will highly correlate to NPV calculations on average across capital markets. The question with Bitcoin is whether it possesses the capacity to bring long term utility to humans or whether it is merely a short term, irrational phenomena based on emotion, sensationalism and belief in the nearly limitless supply of human ignorance. I obviously believe it is the latter but only time will tell.
 

NorthStar

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Feb 8, 2011
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Vancouver Island, B.C. Canada

RogerD

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May 23, 2010
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BiggestLittleCity
Coincidentally Trump's EO and Bitcoin takes a header.
 

Ron Resnick

Site Co-Owner, Administrator
Jan 24, 2015
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What's an "EO"?

What's a "header"?
 

RogerD

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What's an "EO"?

What's a "header"?
EO is a Executive Order
Header = Fall

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presiden...volved-serious-human-rights-abuse-corruption/

Always follow the money. War between White hats vs Black hats. What has happened recently in Saudi Arabia?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...micable-exchange-6-billion-al-waleeds-freedom

What Nation State is rumored to have a large Bitcoin position?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ex...in-price-Kim-Jong-un-nuclear-Donald-Trump/amp
 
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Folsom

VIP/Donor
Oct 25, 2015
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I've been watching cryptos long enough to not think much about the sea of red. Now it's a sea of green. So it goes.
 

Folsom

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Oct 25, 2015
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E

What Nation State is rumored to have a large Bitcoin position?

The US. They have over 2 billion $ worth that they confiscated from Silk Road.

North Korea only stole around $30-40mil, if it was them who hacked Youbit. As in not enough to really care unless it was your money.
 

RogerD

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The US. They have over 2 billion $ worth that they confiscated from Silk Road.

North Korea only stole around $30-40mil, if it was them who hacked Youbit. As in not enough to really care unless it was your money.

You have a WW move against criminal syndicates backed by the US military. I expect even more volitility in bitcoin in the future as assets are frozen.
 

RogerD

VIP/Donor
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World wide
Bitcoin is a asset and is traceable.
 

andromedaaudio

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Jan 23, 2011
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" Im short bitcoin " did they say that Friday morning(ET) or Friday afternoon (ET)/Saturday:D
What is remarkable to me is that the volatility starts in the first week with the bitcoin futures market open , so derivatives do add to volatility :)
 

NorthStar

Member
Feb 8, 2011
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Vancouver Island, B.C. Canada

 

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RogerD

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Depending on who controls the majority stake in Bitcoin, could this EO have a impact. There is a compact topping pattern in Bitcoin and could measure down to 8k or below.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...lem-1000-investors-control-nearly-half-market

The partial EO

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) (NEA), the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act (Public Law 114-328) (the “Act”), section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 (8 U.S.C. 1182(f)) (INA), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code,

I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, find that the prevalence and severity of human rights abuse and corruption that have their source, in whole or in substantial part, outside the United States, such as those committed or directed by persons listed in the Annex to this order, have reached such scope and gravity that they threaten the stability of international political and economic systems.
 
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Ron Resnick

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That order reads fine to me -- and I'm a libertarian. I think this order is aimed at Putin's puppet in Chechnya -- an authoritarian and murderer.
 

RogerD

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That order reads fine to me -- and I'm a libertarian. I think this order is aimed at Putin's puppet in Chechnya -- an authoritarian and murderer.
Ron you need to read the Annex list at the US Treasury site. This order is intended to be far reaching. At first thought it could be connected to the Saudi corruption sting with Waleed and others targeted. I continue to believe that this is a move by the US Military to go after the drug trade,criminal syndicates,rogue states and those secret networks that fund them.

Dan Gertler - Glencore is a interesting target Panama Papers
 
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Pb Blimp

Well-Known Member
Oct 30, 2017
518
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140
USA
Ron you need to read the Annex list at the US Treasury site. This order is intended to be far reaching. At first thought it could be connected to the Saudi corruption sting with Waleed and others targeted. I continue to believe that this is a move by the US Military to go after the drug trade,criminal syndicates,rogue states and those secret networks that fund them.

Ya but if you follow the Bitcoin world you know that its purpose is wholly virtuous with no association to such activities. Rather it represents a mind numbing waste of precious resources to duplicate a service already efficiently met by safe, regulated means. Well at least no innocent bystanders will be hurt along the way.
 

RogerD

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Ya but if you follow the Bitcoin world you know that its purpose is wholly virtuous with no association to such activities. Rather it represents a mind numbing waste of precious resources to duplicate a service already efficiently met by safe, regulated means. Well at least no innocent bystanders will be hurt along the way.

I know that Robert Prechter was a early investor.

I was pointing out the possibility that this EO could impact crypto currencies IF that impacted the U.S. Economic or financial systems.

But there is a Libertarian faction in the WH right now...who knows.
 

Ron Resnick

Site Co-Owner, Administrator
Jan 24, 2015
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Beverly Hills, CA
Ron you need to read the Annex list at the US Treasury site. This order is intended to be far reaching. At first thought it could be connected to the Saudi corruption sting with Waleed and others targeted. I continue to believe that this is a move by the US Military to go after the drug trade,criminal syndicates,rogue states and those secret networks that fund them.

That sounds fine to me, too.

Please note that the U.S. military doesn't make "moves." Our military is clearly and firmly under civilian (i.e., political) control.
 

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