You learn something new every day

Barry2013 · Jul 24, 2016

I've been intending to start this thread for a while but I'm prompted to do so today by a review of the book "the Price of Prosperity" by Todd G, Bucholz, a former White House director of economic policy under President George HW Bush.
He spells out some big challenges for the Western World and makes a number of very interesting points.
Falling birthrates euphemistically called "an ageing population." 2.1 is the replacement rate and in the US the birth rate is 1.89 though only 1.6 for graduate mothers. In Italy it is 1.39.
Red tape. In Arizona a hair stylist must have "1600 hours of classroom instruction" before practicing. Policemen need on 600.
In Japan more nappies are sold to adults than to babies.
I'm not seeking to make judgements or draw conclusions on the book but I just found the above things worth knowing.

LL21 · Jul 25, 2016

Hi Barry,

On the US, you also have to factor a significant net immigration (and add it to birth rate) which is adding to the population, and particularly adding a relative young, working population. As a result, the US is one of the few Western nations with population growth of a meaningful amount, given its base of roughly 300M people.

Barry2013 · Jul 25, 2016

Thanks Lloyd.
Yes the West's,including the USAs, dependence on immigration is dealt with in the book and it explores the pluses and minuses of that. Japan is of course the prime example of the problems of a falling birth rate. an ageing population and virtually no immigration. Italy has similar problems.
From the review in the Sunday Times it appears that while immigration has clear economic benefits, as we know very well here in the UK, the longer term consequences pose significant challenges which our regrettable Brexit campaign and vote illustrates and which is mirrored by Trumps proposed Mexican wall.

ddk · Jul 25, 2016

Barry2013 said:
Thanks Lloyd.
Yes the West's,including the USAs, dependence on immigration is dealt with in the book and it explores the pluses and minuses of that. Japan is of course the prime example of the problems of a falling birth rate. an ageing population and virtually no immigration. Italy has similar problems.
From the review in the Sunday Times it appears that while immigration has clear economic benefits, as we know very well here in the UK, the longer term consequences pose significant challenges which our regrettable Brexit campaign and vote illustrates and which is mirrored by Trumps proposed Mexican wall.

Why regrettable Brexit Barry? Is an autonomous country in worse situation than living under a central Merkel bureaucracy?

david

Barry2013 · Jul 26, 2016

Only time will tell but but the vast majority of informed opinion believes we will be worse off.

bonzo75 · Jul 26, 2016

ddk said:
Why regrettable Brexit Barry? Is an autonomous country in worse situation than living under a central Merkel bureaucracy?

david

The point is not about autonomous or EU, but the uncertainty of the next few years is the concern. Planning, investments, etc on hold.

FrantzM · Jul 26, 2016

Barry2013 said:
Only time will tell but but the vast majority of informed opinion believes we will be worse off.

Looks like it. Insularity (literally) may not profit the UK: Scotland is making noise again and the rest of Europe was not very kind to Brexit. The UK fundamentals are not very strong and are showing serious signs of strains. This was one of those dares, politicians throw in the air knowing well they were bluffing, only to have the $##t hit the proverbial fan. We'll see.

NorthStar · Jul 26, 2016

Barry2013 said:
I've been intending to start this thread for a while but I'm prompted to do so today by a review of the book "the Price of Prosperity" by Todd G, Bucholz, a former White House director of economic policy under President George HW Bush.
He spells out some big challenges for the Western World and makes a number of very interesting points.
Falling birthrates euphemistically called "an ageing population." 2.1 is the replacement rate and in the US the birth rate is 1.89 though only 1.6 for graduate mothers. In Italy it is 1.39.
Red tape. In Arizona a hair stylist must have "1600 hours of classroom instruction" before practicing. Policemen need on 600.
In Japan more nappies are sold to adults than to babies.
I'm not seeking to make judgements or draw conclusions on the book but I just found the above things worth knowing.

I missed this thread.

* "In Arizona a hair stylist must have "1600 hours of classroom instruction" before practicing. Policemen need 'only' 600."
More important to have your hair look good than to perform police duties with the best foundation? That rings totally wrong in Arizona; they need to adjust the balance of values...

** "In Japan more nappies are sold to adults than to babies."
I see, the return to our sources. I think they are into something real in Japan. It's the same everywhere in the world; it's just that different people show it differently. ...In the USA for example, or in China, or in Canada, or in the UK, France, Italy, Greece, Brazil, Africa, Russia, South America, Australia, Iceland, ...

*** The birthrate in different parts of the world: It's an economic phenomenon more and more, becoming less and less natural. I think.
_______

Quite interesting points indeed Barry. ...Challenges? Yes if the balance is creating problems.
I don't mind models looking good with their stylish hair, and I don't mind either having the respect of our police officers.

The life values different people adopt in different parts of the world reflect the principles of human diversity. They weren't written on stones for eternity, they were written for improvement. How can you improve the unwritten? How can you improve what is not already a way of life? What we write today (new laws) are not forever, they are for our times in our society here.

Man's evolution comes from positive transformation, realization, adaptation and changes. ...The only way to expand our horizons, our brain (intelligence) and live more freely in peace. I think.

We respect human life, all human life...physically and mentally (spirit).

ddk · Jul 26, 2016

bonzo75 said:
The point is not about autonomous or EU, but the uncertainty of the next few years is the concern. Planning, investments, etc on hold.

I can understand that, specially when there's no certainty about the timetable or even if the politicians will even go through with it. Kinda reminds me of when Hong Kong was reverting back to China and speculations of economic doom under Chinese rule which turned out to be mostly false.

david

jazdoc · Jul 26, 2016

The declining fertility rates in the Western world are a sign of cultural exhaustion. Having children is a statement of optimism for the future and a willingness to engage in selfless acts. Ironically, the entire structure of the Ponzi scheme otherwise known as the 20th century welfare state requires increasing numbers of workers at the bottom of the pyramid to support the beneficiaries at the top. One only needs to look at the unprecedented social experiment in Japan with its declining population with inverted pyramid and resultant 2nd generation of subpar economic performance to glimpse the future the West. How long will the ahem 'immigrants' in Europe continue support Gunter's and Jean Paul's retirement without demanding significant changes to the societal model more akin to the countries from whence they came?

Johnny Vinyl · Jul 26, 2016

jazdoc said:
How long will the ahem 'immigrants' in Europe continue support Gunter's and Jean Paul's retirement without demanding significant changes to the societal model more akin to the countries from whence they came?

First...they are 'refugees" not immigrants.
Second...this is typical fear-mongering and projection.
Living in Canada I have seen no examples of this being the case, but then, the refugees we have accepted (approx 30,000) are assimilated throughout the country in cities , towns and villages large and small. As far as I know the refugee placement during the "Vietnamese Boat People Crisis" of whom we accepted more than 60,000 was handled the same way.
The refugees aren't the problem.....

jazdoc · Jul 26, 2016

Johnny Vinyl said:
First...they are 'refugees" not immigrants.
Second...this is typical fear-mongering and projection.
Living in Canada I have seen no examples of this being the case, but then, the refugees we have accepted (approx 30,000) are assimilated throughout the country in cities , towns and villages large and small. As far as I know the refugee placement during the "Vietnamese Boat People Crisis" of whom we accepted more than 60,000 was handled the same way.
The refugees aren't the problem.....

Well good luck with that. I suspect that there are 80+ folks in Nice, 49 in Orlando and today, a French priest who might beg to differ...if they weren't already dead. But hey, it's just another piece of patchwork of the diversity quilt. And I do hope someone finally finds that Allahu Akbar fellow everyone is apparently looking for...

SoundAndMotion · Jul 27, 2016

jazdoc said:
I suspect that there are 80+ folks in Nice, 49 in Orlando and today, a French priest who might beg to differ...if they weren't already dead. But hey, it's just another piece of patchwork of the diversity quilt.

You do realize that the Orlando shooter was American, right? And although he mentioned allegiance to IS, no evidence of an association has been found. It seems more likely that he was struggling with his sexuality and rather than have people talk about that, he mentioned IS as a red herring.

audioguy · Jul 27, 2016

Reading this thread reminds me of the threads on audio products. Everyone has an opinion, and AT BEST, only one is even partially correct! I will leave it at that.

Johnny Vinyl · Jul 27, 2016

audioguy said:
Reading this thread reminds me of the threads on audio products. Everyone has an opinion, and AT BEST, only one is even partially correct! I will leave it at that.

With that said I think I'll do likewise.

Search

Search

You learn something new every day

Barry2013

VIP/Donor

LL21

Well-Known Member

Barry2013

VIP/Donor

ddk

Well-Known Member

Barry2013

VIP/Donor

bonzo75

Member Sponsor

FrantzM

Member Sponsor & WBF Founding Member

NorthStar

Member

ddk

Well-Known Member

jazdoc

Member Sponsor

Johnny Vinyl

Member Sponsor & WBF Founding Member

jazdoc

Member Sponsor

SoundAndMotion

Well-Known Member

audioguy

WBF Founding Member

Johnny Vinyl

Member Sponsor & WBF Founding Member

Staff online

Members online