The Half Life of Expectation Bias

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mep

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We often hear about the phenomenon of ‘Expectation Bias’ as it relates to audio purchases. The prevailing wisdom of those who like to beat people over the head with the concept is that you are inclined to believe that your new, shiny, expensive purchase sounds way better than what it replaced and you will keep on believing it for as long as you own the gear you just purchased.

Before I tackle expectation bias as it relates to audio, I think we should all understand the concept is not limited to audio. It’s true for anything we buy from common household appliances to new vehicles. Unless we purposely bought something that was cheaper and inferior to the item it’s replacing, we expect the new item to be better. For instance, if you went from owning a modern Mercedes S class car and had to sell it and you purchased a Toyota Corolla, you wouldn’t have an expectation bias that you just stepped up in the world of automotive performance and luxury.

Where I take a turn off the ramp of the expectation bias highway is where reality meets the purchase after you have had time to use it and understand it. I believe that a person can fool themselves temporarily into thinking the new item they just bought is superior to the item it replaced because we sincerely do hope for that and want to believe it’s true. Once you have had a new piece of gear long enough to understand how it affects the sound (and all gear affects the sound to one degree or another), I don’t think you can or will keep telling yourself the new piece of gear is better if your brain via your ears is telling you that you made a mistake.

In summary, expectation bias has a half life. At some point in time, expectation bias turns into ‘reality’ bias. If in fact the new piece of gear proves itself to you over the long haul to be superior to what it replaced, your expectation bias was well-founded. If the new purchase turns out to be a major disappointment, that becomes your new reality. Expectation bias doesn’t have infinite time to remain as an expectation. The expectation will turn into some sort of reality for you.
 

edorr

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We often hear about the phenomenon of ‘Expectation Bias’ as it relates to audio purchases. The prevailing wisdom of those who like to beat people over the head with the concept is that you are inclined to believe that your new, shiny, expensive purchase sounds way better than what it replaced and you will keep on believing it for as long as you own the gear you just purchased.

I think a more accurate description of expectation bias is that after we have heard a number of our audio buddies, reviewers or manufacturers vouching for the sonic improvement yielded by inserting component ABC in a system, we have created expectation bias said component will deliver the goods, influencing our subjective assessment of the sonic impact of the component. Whether we actually have bought the component is immaterial (you usually convince yourself something sounds "better" before buying).

There is another empirically proven psychological condition for audiophiles dismissing their own susceptibility to expectation bias. It is call "denial".
 

mep

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I don't doubt that we can all be susceptible to expectation bias. As I tried to explain, I think it's normal. My point is that the expectation can't last for the long term. It has to evolve from the expectation stage and turn into a positive reality or a real disappointment.
 

MylesBAstor

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I don't doubt that we can all be susceptible to expectation bias. As I tried to explain, I think it's normal. My point is that the expectation can't last for the long term. It has to evolve from the expectation stage and turn into a positive reality or a real disappointment.

+1

Kinda like the first time you have sex with a new partner. :)
 

MylesBAstor

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I don't doubt that we can all be susceptible to expectation bias. As I tried to explain, I think it's normal. My point is that the expectation can't last for the long term. It has to evolve from the expectation stage and turn into a positive reality or a real disappointment.

Truthfully who doesn't unless they're Debby Downer?
 

dingus

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I don't doubt that we can all be susceptible to expectation bias. As I tried to explain, I think it's normal. My point is that the expectation can't last for the long term. It has to evolve from the expectation stage and turn into a positive reality or a real disappointment.

but the illusion remains, and isnt there still expectation behind the illusion no matter if its a positive reality or a real disappointment? after all , anything is possible once we enter the subjective.
 

mep

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What illusion remains? The illusion stereo creates for us or are you speaking of something else?
 

mep

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Truthfully who doesn't unless they're Debby Downer?



Exactly Myles. If we didn't expect our new piece of gear to be better, we would never buy new gear. We would all still have our first stereo systems. In fact, there may be at least one person on this forum who still has his first system and never upgraded.
 

Robh3606

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In summary, expectation bias has a half life

Hello Mep

Bet you it lasts longer than your audio memory.:D

What Kal said, which is why I have a problem with things taking 100 or more hour's of burn-in. More like brain burn in.

Rob:)
 

mep

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I think it more likely that it smoothly morphs into long-term adaptation bias. :b

Kal-That seems to be the common 'wisdom,' but I for one am not buying it. How many times have we all heard a piece of music that we are very familiar with over our systems with a new piece of gear added and we know that something is missing or not quite right in reference to how we are used to hearing it?
 

MylesBAstor

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Hello Mep

Bet you it lasts longer than your audio memory.:D

What Kal said, which is why I have a problem with things taking 100 or more hour's of burn-in. More like brain burn in.

Rob:)

Why does it have to be one or the other? Can't it be both? I've actually talked about adaptation to stressors ad nauseum here and now all of a sudden someone's listening? And it's more than brain burn in if you study a little physiology. Read the initial paper by Hans Selye, a Canadian physiologist who wrote about stressor in the '40s. Only thing he was wrong on is that he thought is was a generalized response. We now know that each stressor brings a unique response.
 

Orb

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I think the issue is that expectation bias is over used and too generic.
Case in point, the mOFC study relating to wines and expectation (study looked at price vs subjective quality) activating greater pleasure that correlated price to greater associated mOFC activity.
Kal, in your post would you deem this is possible in turning into long-term adaptation bias?
I would think this is a good case of showing how expectation bias used in audio may need further defintion as there seems multiple associated variables involved for a complex subject *shrug*.

I appreciate one aspect is how we do adapt to changes in our hifi, affecting anchoring (whether decision making or sensory) and our perceived baseline-reference for FR,etc.
Just off the top of my head another sensory/decision making aspect from what I remember was expectation bias relating to the position and compared blind/sighted (this was noticed in one of the extensive Harman studies); the sighted had very different results to the blind when the speakers were in a certain position/boundary.

Thanks
Orb
 

mep

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Hello Mep

Bet you it lasts longer than your audio memory.:D

Bet it doesn't. I have dumped gear that I bought with bias expectation when I realized that it wasn't as good as something I had before or conversely dumped more expensive gear I owned when something cheaper showed up the more expensive gear.

What Kal said, which is why I have a problem with things taking 100 or more hour's of burn-in. More like brain burn in.

Rob:)

So are you saying that you don't believe new gear has to burn in before the sound is stabilized/optimized or you just don't think it should take 100 hours let alone the 600 hours that some companies tell you is required?
 

Kal Rubinson

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Kal-That seems to be the common 'wisdom,' but I for one am not buying it. How many times have we all heard a piece of music that we are very familiar with over our systems with a new piece of gear added and we know that something is missing or not quite right in reference to how we are used to hearing it?

How does that situation involve adaptation bias? Put it in, it sounds bad enough to override any expectation bias and it doesn't stay long enough for adaptation.
 

Robh3606

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So are you saying that you don't believe new gear has to burn in before the sound is stabilized/optimized or you just don't think it should take 100 hours let alone the 600 hours that some companies tell you is required?

Hello Mep

It depends on what you are talking about. Most devices age in a bathtub like curve. So you see initial changes which stabilize and get much smaller over time. So past say 100 hours on electronics doesn't make sense to me. Speakers after a couple of hours, Really 2-300hr's for beak-in.

Sure it's not broken??

Rob:)
 

MylesBAstor

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Hello Mep

It depends on what you are talking about. Most devices age in a bathtub like curve. So you see initial changes which stabilize and get much smaller over time. So past say 100 hours on electronics doesn't make sense to me. Speakers after a couple of hours, Really 2-300hr's for beak-in.

Sure it's not broken??

Rob:)

You're kidding right?
 

puroagave

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Bet it doesn't. I have dumped gear that I bought with bias expectation when I realized that it wasn't as good as something I had before or conversely dumped more expensive gear I owned when something cheaper showed up the more expensive gear.

this thread has nothing to do with your latest ARC ref acquisitions or does it?;):D
 

Robh3606

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You're kidding right?

Hello Myles


No I am not. You ever hear of MilSpec space Qualified parts and the screening and testing involved? It's part of what I do for a living. I have been screening parts for 30 years. There are parametric changes in value, leakage currents, breakdown voltages, beta and so on.

Please explain the need for burn in times that exceed the time need for parts to be used in manned space flight?? The parts are burned in for reliability reasons not parameteric or functional reasons. There are exceptions like crystals where the aging rate may take 30 of more days to stabilize depending on the PPM rate required. But that is not at all typical.

Rob:)
 
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