"Am I going to get shot?"

RBFC

WBF Founding Member
Apr 20, 2010
5,158
46
1,225
Albuquerque, NM
www.fightingconcepts.com
In another thread, the question was posed about disarming an attacker when he is standing with his firearm well out of your reach. We must look at the motivation of a criminal and WHY he would use a gun in a crime.

1. The criminal has murderous intent and a chosen target. This is the most prevalent type of firearm-related homicide. Whether domestic violence, family argument, or dispute with neighbors or friends, most murders are committed by someone the victim knew. In these situations, emotions play a large role in the rapid escalation to deadly force.

2. A criminal uses the firearm as a tool of coercion. In this case, they actually have little intent to actually shoot the victim. Instead, he feels that he will be more successful in the commission of his chosen crime if he uses the weapon to force cooperation. It should be clear that the firearm becomes a psychological "crutch", without which he feels less able to successfully carry off the crime. Thus, the underlying insecurity of the criminal is exposed. The threat, of course, is still quite real. However, if we have a basic understanding of the reasons the firearm is used as a "lever", we are better prepared to deal with its appearance in a non-assassination event. I hope that it makes sense to you how the firearm becomes an important "pivot" in the criminal's plot.

3. In muggings, etc., where money/property is the goal for the criminal, he almost always MUST approach the victim to make his threat. This requirement of proximity almost always means that one will have an opportunity to attempt a disarm (if trained to do so). The mugger doesn't stand across the street and ask for your wallet.

Let's look at the statistics that describe the scenario where a gunman approaches you as you are getting into your car. He tells you to "DRIVE!"

1. You do as he says, and drive away with him in the car. You have a 99+% chance of being killed.

2. You throw the keys in the air and run away, leaving your car behind. In 1 out of 10 times, he actually shoots at you. 1 out of 10 times, he hits you with the shot. 1 out of 10 times, the gunshot wound is fatal. So, your chances of being killed are 1/1000. In this case, the firearm is primarily there as a tool of coercion. The flustered gunman, upset because his carefully thought-out plan fell apart, is not in the best frame of mind to be a great marksman, so usually misses when he actually tries to shoot. Handguns are not really the massive "hand cannons" that TV portrays them to be, and most handgun wounds are survivable with timely medical care.


I've introduced the concept of the criminal having a "script" by which they carry out their crime. After mentally rehearsing the steps of the crime in their head, the criminal follows his plan to its often-successful conclusion. Most victims, chosen by their "victim selection" behaviors, act in a similar manner to the criminal's approach and ensuing commands. They follow his script. If a potential victim does not go along with the script, but interjects something that disrupts the smooth flow of the plan (such as throwing the keys into the air as above), the criminal is forced to mentally re-write the script while under extreme duress in the middle of committing a felony. This high-pressure critical-decision-making usually results in a series of poor choices. As stated before, the threats are real, but we must understand what we face in order to have the best chance of prevailing.

More later.

Lee
 

About us

  • What’s Best Forum is THE forum for high end audio, product reviews, advice and sharing experiences on the best of everything else. This is THE place where audiophiles and audio companies discuss vintage, contemporary and new audio products, music servers, music streamers, computer audio, digital-to-analog converters, turntables, phono stages, cartridges, reel-to-reel tape machines, speakers, headphones and tube and solid-state amplification. Founded in 2010 What’s Best Forum invites intelligent and courteous people of all interests and backgrounds to describe and discuss the best of everything. From beginners to life-long hobbyists to industry professionals, we enjoy learning about new things and meeting new people, and participating in spirited debates.

Quick Navigation

User Menu

Steve Williams
Site Founder | Site Owner | Administrator
Ron Resnick
Site Co-Owner | Administrator
Julian (The Fixer)
Website Build | Marketing Managersing